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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (17691)	9/11/2003 5:25:24 AM
From: David	Respond to of 78682

James, you might consider ANF. <g> <<Everybody is focused on one number, comp sales>> SSS spook the market and spook me the first Thursday or so every month. I've lived with them for three years now (purchased ANF in February and March, 2000 while it was tumbling down to $8.00 p/s). Still holding EBSC. Best slow motion take-over action in the market.

To: James Clarke who wrote (17691)	9/11/2003 10:24:26 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78682

Well, on a contrarian view, I will say why I sold the "mystery company" this year: executive (over)compensation. Jurgis - $31M's no chump change

To: James Clarke who wrote (17691)	9/11/2003 10:48:17 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78682

Nice revenue gain reported by retail clothier Quicksilver last night. Possibly a harbinger of better news to be reported next quarter by the competitor* mystery stock. biz.yahoo.com *competitor: Well, they likely try to distinguish themselves from each other in image and product, so it's just my hunch that both companies in this niche market might have good sales and earnings results.

To: James Clarke who wrote (17691)	11/3/2003 2:51:13 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78682

ANF profiled in November issue of S&P "Market Month" in column titled "Stocks with superior capital gains potential." Upgraded to 5 stars. Snips: "Hollister is beating the company's own expectations and should propel same-store sales... "We are confident of ANF's ability to protect its apparel brands and margins...among the best in the retail clothing business... "We think ANF shares are attractive at 12 times our earnings estimate of $2.52 in 2005, significantly below the PE of the peer group..." Updating my Graham calculation to use S&P's estimate of $2.52 (vs. First Call's consensus of $2.46): Company: ANF Date: 11/3/03 2005's expected earnings: $2.52 Estimated percent 5 year EPS growth rate: 13 P/E maximum: 13 Graham Fair Value: $69.19 Current Price: $28.84 $ difference: $40.35 Percent Growth to Fair Value: 139.91% (27 analysts expect 5 yr. growth of 17%; to create a margin of safety, I knocked that down to 13% Using consensus of $2.46 I get a FV of $67.54.) First Call shows a PEG of .78 and a forward PE of 12.8 Multex: 5 yr. rev and earnings growth faster than industry ave.; ANF less leveraged than ave.; TTM gross margin and ROA higher than ave.; cash and free cash flow up nicely from 2002.