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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (697)9/10/2003 11:17:35 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 110194
 
this is all Toquiville's comments? that was very good, KM (I'm not just saying that because I agree either -- though I do).

I kept looking for a sweet spot to short the homebuilders (again -- ok, I was wrong about them at least twice and maybe thrice) -- of course at some pt they will collapse -- but the put premies were soo stiff recently.

I wanted a proxy -- what else would get hit if interest rates climbed and housing prices fell?? Retailers -- it just makes sense. I don't believe that consumer spending will just "tail off." I agree with Toqueville -- it will hit a wall or a cliff.



To: KM who wrote (697)9/11/2003 7:52:24 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Terrific, is this your writing or it did come from a source? The part about retailing is spot on. Add financials to the mix, and the next stage of the bust should be even worse than the TNT bust.

On the other side of the coin are sectors that have badly neglected by these distortions and maladjustments. The primary one, where there is no slack is energy. Here's a good piece on that:

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