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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (81133)	9/11/2003 9:23:18 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Shack -- well aware that the market doesn't care FA, until they get beat over the head with it (e.g. the Annally dividend cut yesterday). but I care FA, and TA, and am very interested in hearing what my favorite TA experts (i.e. this thread) thinks about the TECHNICALS of the mortgage REITs and the homebuilders. to the extent that those things looked TECHNICALLY sick, that would be another arrow in my "leveraged mortgage trade is over, economy plunges into depression and over-leveraged baby brats get what's coming to them" thesis. as for the $DJR, i am pretty sure that is an overall REIT index; i.e. it includes proper property companies like Equity Office and Kimco Realty (both of which, scarily enough, i am long). i am specifically interested in the MORTGAGE REITs, which are basically hedge funds masquerading as public companies (they don't own property; Annally for example is a $1.5 billion market cap company with 15 employees -- they borrow in the short term repo market, buy mortgage backs, earn a spread, and pretend that this is sustainable income). the mortgage REITs (again, the large practitioners are NLY, TMA, RWT, IMH, though there are others) are a pure-play look into what is going on in the levered mortgage trade. and if those stocks look like they're technically breaking down, it would be a sign that the levered mortgage trade is breaking down, and marginal liquidity will be withdrawn from that market. and nobody wants to know what happens if capital exits real estate at this point. So anyway, I'm not trying to bias your TA look or anything, or to convince you that this logical string i am constructing is right or wrong. I'd really simply like from you or any other of the excellent technicians on this thread a TA look at the mortgage REITs and the homebuilders, as i personally think (from an FA point of view) that those stocks might be telling me something. Thanks Cheers Cheers