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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7141)	9/11/2003 11:28:31 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

DRAM Bulletin: Prices steady in market lull by Nam Kim Silicon Strategies 09/11/2003, 10:36 AM ET The following column was provided by Nam Kim, a senior analyst with iSuppli Corp., an El Segundo, Calif.-based market research firm. The conclusion of the back-to-school buying season has brought some calm to the DRAM market, with spot market prices treading water this week. The DRAM market now is traveling through a demand no-man's land, a period that lies after the end of the back-to-school season and before the start of the Christmas build. Because of that, DRAM prices are expected to stay at their present levels or decrease by the end of September. Furthermore, many major Asian holidays are occurring now and during the coming weeks, a development that is slowing or stopping activity in some key spot memory markets in the Far East. The South Korean market is now in 'shut-down' mode as the nation celebrates its Thanksgiving Holiday this week. Other holidays on the horizon include China's major National Day celebration on October 1, and Taiwan's Double-Tenth holiday on October 10. With virtually no demand for DRAM expected in the short term, the mood among spot market traders is becoming decidedly pessimistic. As expected, DRAM suppliers failed to win price increases during contract negotiations for the first half of September. Suppliers will face even tougher negotiations when they try to increase contract prices in the second half of the month. There simply isn't any justification for price increases from either the demand or the supply side. How long will the DRAM market remain in stasis? iSuppli continues to expect a downward price adjustment this month. Recent DRAM price run ups have placed a considerable burden on OEMs and spot market traders. The traders and OEMs are unlikely to continue to tolerate the high prices. However, iSuppli is cautiously predicting an increase in DRAM prices in October, as buyers begin to stock up on DRAM for Christmas. Until that time, the developments in the DRAM market in September will have a major impact on the market for the entire year. With no optimistic news in the near term, major DRAM traders and distributors may begin selling off more of their stockpiles in September. Historically, September is one of the most active months of the year for the DRAM market, when suppliers usually increase production and clean out their inventory for the end of the third quarter. Overall, September looks weak for DRAM pricing. The only positive thing iSuppli can say about present market conditions is that, despite the lack of demand, spot market DRAM prices are not collapsing. Nam Kim can be contacted at the following email address: nkim@isuppli.com