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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (38164)	9/12/2003 2:04:23 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi carranza2, Thank you for the link. I will download to iPaq to read when sun rises again. Europe is stable in my scheme of thinking, gently settling down for a retiring life style of older countries. America, OTOH, is riding in the driver's seat of a car that is powered by gravity, without breaks, and faulty steering. Whatever may happen, I cannot imagine. Aging population with strong currency will spend to enjoy, and lack of productivity means the youngster will have jobs of some sort. Perhaps above is the same sort of alcohol-clouded thinking that compelled me to tag along with Pezz's stock picks. I recommend everyone should try Pezz's style, just to purge the urge from the system, lose a little money, taking a reminder course in 2000 debacle, so as to not lose serious moolah :0) Chugs, Jay [EDIT: just kidding with you, Pezz - keep those realtime postings coming]

To: carranza2 who wrote (38164)	9/13/2003 2:43:41 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Hi Carranza: thanks for the article! here's some comments... >>Seen from the outside, the Eurozone looks almost like a developing country on which the imf has imposed one of those rigid stabilization programmes for which it is so famous: low inflation, fiscal rectitude, deregulation and privatization, all run by a bunch of non-elected officials << It looks like a case of "no taxation and no representation either" scenario. I see the political unification and democratization as the foremost task in EU - for the next 25 years. The rest is accompanying symptoms. >>One possible factor may be linked to the process of globalization. The surge of East Asian, and especially Chinese, manufactured exports has been largely beneficial for developing and developed countries alike, but it has also accelerated deindustrialization everywhere in the oecd area. This decline in manufacturing production has reduced the share in the economy of the sector with the most rapid growth in productivity. Since this sector was (and still is) much larger on the Continent and in Japan than in the United States, the impact was bound to be felt more severely in the Eurozone economies. And this is the more so as import penetration from China actually increased somewhat more rapidly in these economies than it did in either the us or Britain.<< Good point. >>This, in turn, is bound to slow down capital formation and hence productivity growth.<< dont see the connection, would appreciate a hint. And re productivity let me mention one word that's not used in Europe "Hedonistic" >>ageing has a longer-run, indirect negative effect on the growth of both output and productivity of a non-economic nature. Old people are, on the whole, opposed to change and dislike new ventures. Old people are surely less innovative and less entrepreneurial than the young. Thus, America’s advance in the new technologies may also have been helped by the relative youth of its population (both native and immigrant). Europe, in other words, may be slowly turning into a conservative continent, in which a growing share of the population shuns change and frowns on new initiatives. At one level, this is hardly tragic. Welfare levels are high and ageing is associated with a number of favourable aspects (less crime and less pollution, just to mention two obvious ones). At another, however, it does mean that the gap in living standards between the two sides of the Atlantic, however small at present, will almost certainly grow again. And as that gap expands, so too will the political one. America’s superpower position looks set to rise well beyond its present, already overwhelming, status. << ... while ROW keeps buying the US' IOUs. Let's wait and see. Re ageing population - Germans (and French as well to name the most obvious examples ) cant face the reality of the Turk and Arab immigrants propping up the situation. US has no problem (more or less, or am I wrong) with accepting the fact even their prez finds speaking Spanish a kick. Imagine Schroeder (or J. Chirac) greeting their Turkish/arab electorate in the language of their forbears... BTW; Good stuff by Marshall Auerback on prubear: European Monetary Union: Crunch Time Approaches