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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (735)	9/13/2003 6:57:08 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

you ignore the fact the parts of the rest of the world have something we are missing: its called savings....

To: mishedlo who wrote (735)	9/13/2003 7:26:15 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

the writer has a point and that is why the USD has not returned to the real value and US treasuries are still bought by Japan and other Asian countries. Governments in Asia prefer to hold worthless US paper with a hope of payment and keep their manufacturing humming. A sharp decline in the USD will make imports from Asia less attractive. THat is why Japan clearly states that they do intervene in the FX market to keep the USD/JPY rate steady and buy truck loads of treasuries. I have also noticed that most agressive USD buying is during US night hours - concluding it is possible Asia making the buying

To: mishedlo who wrote (735)	9/22/2003 7:33:28 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

counterpt: in time, plenty of alternatives to US credit markets, and most will come from Asia last summer Asians met to discuss the bind they find themselves in, so that they have an alternative to our credit markets the Asians concluded that they must move forward in two directions 1. recycling their surpluses into Asian debt securities for building their own continent (e.g. VietNam, China, Thailand)... which must be created and whose markets must be built 2. creation of a new Asian Currency Unit, which I hereby propose the name "ASIO" or "AZHO"... which would be a powerful new currency unit, eclipsing the damaged JYen we in the USA make many absolutely moronic assumptions - asians will always supply our credit lines - federal deficits are no big deal - trade gaps are no big deal - seeking costcutting solutions will prevail - American technology will overcome our indebted situation - the jobless recovery will eventually produce jobs I dispute every single listed assumption - asians will retreat in supplying our credit, resulting in higher interest rates, even if they simply slow that supply - federal deficits will eventually reach that certain undefined convexity point where interest rates must rise in order to attract continued funding - trade gaps will eventually (like starting today) result in such declining USDollar currency exchange rates that our entire economy will falter from rising price levels on a systemic basis - lowcost solutions have resulted in debt levels that our economy will NEVER be able to escape, without a depression, 20-25% unemployment, 50 million personal bankruptcies, and the liquidation of 1/3-rd of the Fortune 1000 list of companies - American technology has been almost totally subverted by financial engineering, as we have seen, with debt levels bring about oversupply in areas like fiberoptics, cellular technology, and other cutting edge... so far biotech has escaped the clutches of financial fraud - the current economic recovery is producing millions of jobs, but one has to speak an Asian tongue in order to report for work... first the jobless recovery sham, then the outright loss of jobs, finally the recession, and its momentum leading to a US Depression / jim