Democrats Find Some Traction on Capitol Hill
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG - NEW YORK TIMES
WASHINGTON, Sept. 12 — With President Bush on the defensive over his handling of postwar Iraq, Democrats on Capitol Hill have been scoring a few victories in the Republican-controlled Congress, gaining a measure of political momentum that they hope will grow more pronounced as the 2004 elections draw nearer.
This week, Senate Democrats won votes on such pocketbook issues as overtime pay and student aid, as well as financing for special education. Last week, their long-running filibuster forced an appeals court nominee, Miguel Estrada, to withdraw. Next week, they are expected to prevail in a Senate vote to repeal new rules, backed by the White House, that would enable large media conglomerates to expand.
Political analysts and Democrats say it is no coincidence that the recent gains on overtime and student aid came in the same week that President Bush announced he was requesting $87 billion for postwar Iraq, an announcement followed by a drop in Mr. Bush's approval rating. Some say the numbers have emboldened Democrats and made Republicans, especially those up for re-election, more likely to break ranks with their party and the president.
"The president is losing some of his popularity," said Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic whip. Of Republicans, Mr. Reid said: "They no longer feel that he can be a dictator. They no longer feel that he is King George. He is President George now."
Republicans, of course, are hardly relinquishing control on Capitol Hill. This week, they shut Democrats out of talks designed to reach an agreement between the House and Senate on a new energy bill. Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Republican leader, and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican whip, played down the Democrats' recent gains.
"We like to let them win one occasionally to keep their morale up," Senator McConnell said, adding that Republican unity was not cracking.
"My response," he said, "is: Prove it. There's no evidence."
Dr. Frist called the Democrats' gains "isolated victories."
But some scholars and political strategists, both Democrat and Republican, say Democrats have succeeded in taking advantage of the limited muscle they have. News from Iraq, combined with the increasing federal deficit, high unemployment and recent polls on Mr. Bush "have caused Republicans to get a little wobbly," one Republican strategist said.
He added, "It feels like the wheels are starting to fall off a little."
The polls have been running in the Democrats' favor. A Gallup poll, conducted after Mr. Bush's speech on Iraq and released on Thursday, found his approval rating at 52 percent, down from 59 percent at the end of August.
And a recent poll by the Senate Republican Conference, released this week, found voters preferred Democratic Senate candidates to Republicans by 46 percent to 40 percent. The margin of sampling error in both polls was plus or minus three percentage points.
"A presidential speech, instead of boosting support, is followed by a seven-point drop and suddenly the atmosphere changes," said Thomas Mann, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who follows Congress. "Republicans, who have been reluctant to get off the reservation, now say, `Wait just one minute.' And Democrats have all the more reason to be unified."
Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University, agreed.
"Any sign of weakness out of the White House is going to be perceived by the president's allies in Congress as an opportunity to act a little bit more like free spirits, and on the part of the opposition to be more aggressive," Professor Baker said. "It's the blood-in-the-water syndrome."
That syndrome may have begun with Mr. Estrada's withdrawal. Senator Edward M. Kennedy, the senior Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Democrats were more resolved than ever to stand firmly against other judicial nominees whose views they regard as out of the mainstream.
"That's a very important change and shift," Mr. Kennedy said. Republicans, though, say the Estrada withdrawal was not a victory for Democrats but a loss.
"If they think of the short term of having him withdraw as a win," Dr. Frist said, "the elections will very quickly demonstrate that's fallacious thinking."
In the vote on overtime, 6 Republicans sided with 48 Democrats to block a Bush administration proposal that would make it easier for businesses to deny overtime pay to white collar workers.
The coming elections clearly played a role. Three of the Republican defectors — Senators Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado — are facing competitive races next year.
"Politicians always like to be able to point to examples when they were independent from their party or their own president because it resonates well back home," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster.
At the same time, the Democrats took advantage of timing, said Steven Smith, a professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis. Unlike the House, where Republican leaders exert tight control over the legislative schedule, the Senate gives the minority party more opportunity to offer amendments to legislation, an institutional edge that Professor Smith said Democrats used adroitly in raising the overtime issue.
"Republicans are obviously very nervous about jobs," Professor Smith said. "Republican leaders, even in the House, have been saying to their colleagues that what they should emphasize, always, is jobs. So anything connected to jobs, like overtime pay, is generally something on which a few Republicans are going to feel very sensitive."
Mr. Mann, of the Brookings Institution, said the $87 billion price tag had caused "sticker shock on Capitol Hill," drawing attention to the deficit and making it all the more likely that Democrats will win yet another battle: the battle to keep Mr. Bush's tax cut from becoming permanent.
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