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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11598)	9/13/2003 1:40:59 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Following on from the last post, Monday, 3/17 was a big day - the NASDAQ was up 52 points, 3.9 percent, and the SOX was up 17 points, 5.6 percent. Here is what Briefing.com had to say about the day, and the previous few days. Message 18713854 <General Commentary - Traders aren't the most advanced thinkers so it's not surprising that the indices have raced higher ahead of the war with Iraq. After having seen what happened just after the outbreak of fighting in the 1991 Gulf War, traders are trying to get a head start on the much anticipated war rally. How else do you explain an 8.8%, three-day surge. Now it's very possible that the indices are running ahead of the underlying fundamentals, especially given that we have no idea how the war with Iraq is going to turn out. Nevertheless, there are a number of very positive developments over the past few days which, when added together, suggest that the sector/market will continue to move higher over the short-term. Among the more notable changes are: Surge in trading activity surrounding the upside breakout. As expected, money now flowing off the sidelines for fear of missing out on next major advance. Given low rate environment and depressed stock prices, natural place for money to wind up is back in equities. Technical tone improving greatly... Nasdaq blew through its 200-day moving average in yesterday's action... Now if can get a few more positive days, 50-day moving average should confirm breakout by moving above the 200-day moving average as well. Right now there is a gap of roughly 6 points. If 50-day moving average can get back above 200-day moving average would be first time it has done so in nearly two years. Participation is broad as evidenced by strength in semis, software, networking, disk drive, wireless and Internet Services. Resilience to negative earnings news. Despite a mountain of negativity, Nasdaq Composite is up more than 4% year-to-date. Has to make the shorts nervous and the bulls just a little excited. Though changes in sentiment and powerful momentum should be enough to underpin index over the short-term, ultimately sustainability of sector rebound comes down to improved earnings. Based on the numerous warnings to date (including a couple last night), tough to get overly excited about the sector's profit potential. Consequently, what gains do occur in reaction to war in Gulf are likely to prove surprisingly limited and short-lived. In fact, don't be surprised if stubborn resistance in the 1400-1420 area acts as first stumbling block. Robert Walberg>