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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (114658)	9/13/2003 6:22:20 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

What would you propose to do about this problem? Isn't this the core problem which has been ignored by western and Middle Eastern leaders? And isn't this the problem that fundamentalist leaders have exploited(they have no solution, only the promise of religion)? Absolutely we've all ignored it. But the demography has only become critical in the past 10 years. 40% of 1.5 Billion muslims will reach adulthood over the next 18 years, as I've often stated. 10 years ago, all of these children were under 8 years old and the day of demographic reckoning seemed far off. It was manageable so long as they could provide sufficient food on the table to care for them. But now these young adults and teens want more from life. They are like any other young adult, full of pss and vinegar, but not exceptionally wise. There's a dmn good reason that governments rely upon young people to become soldiers and fight wars. They lack the wisdom to recognize its true horrible nature. And I opine that these relatively under-educated muslim youth are far more susceptible to grandiose visions of glory than more sophisticated western youth. But I really don't expect more than 1% of those 400+ million muslims to become radicalized militants. However, even that amount equates to 4 million people.. 4 million potential suicide bombers, or muhajideen Jihadists. But can anyone credibly claim that the situation will improve all by itself without major intervention? So what needs to be done? For one, pressure has to be immediately applied to prevent religious and political leaders in the region from inciting more racist hatred of non-muslims, as well as calls for Jihad. The financing of such militant mosque leaders must be cut off so they have no major means of supporting (or personal motivation) their calls for Jihad. And since most of these clerics receive some form of governmental subsidy, or in the case of Saudi Arabia, are paid for, and approved by, the King, it is an effective tool. Secondly, the educational system must be moderated so that muslim children are provided an even shot at having the necessary skills to make a living. Thirdly, financial openess and accountability to the global investment community will require best econonomic practices to be used, which should encourage foreign investment. Also, people should be Finally, social services should be funneled only via non-politicized mosques, or preferably government sources (with international oversight via governmental and media sources). Basically, I opine that we're in a phase where we're just trying to keep the lid on this boiling pot. I've been expecting this situation to erupt for the past 13 years ever since I was doing some graduate work in political risk analysis related to Egypt. Mubarak has surprised me by the way he was able to contain the activities of the Moslem Brotherhood there. And much of it obviously has centered on imprisoning or forcing the exile of many of the Egyptian born militant leaders such as Zawahiri, and by dealing with Saudi complicity in financing these groups. But Egypt is definitely on the list of nations that the militants want to eventually control, and it remains a demographic and economic basketcase. Transition to democracy will be slow, and might take the path of parliamentarian reforms, but with monarchial veto power, as evidenced under the Hashemite rule in Jordan. But true democracy comes from the people themselves having a stake in the society they are living in. Having a stake in the natural resources, the economy, and eventually the political structure of their nation. And might well find the task to be too overwhelming for it to succeed. But I would rather try and possibly fail, than to do nothing and guarantee that we fail. The Israel/Palestina problem could be solved overnight. Israel gives up all the settlements. Palestine accepts a fence around Israel. Yep. And it will probably be a solution that the UN/US will have to impose upon both sides. And I think we're fast approaching such a possibility with Sharon threatening to oust Arafat from the territories and the PA unable(unwilling) to control Hamas and its calls for the destruction of Israel. Minus international intervention (Israel will likely never agree to UN observers on their soil), the only potential hope is the one that Israel has been following. Building their security wall delineating between the two entities, and having full control over their borders. Walls can always be taken down later when both sides finally agree to tolerate and respect one another. The biggest problem with a Palestinian state is that it's simply not economically viable. And no Arab nation in the region has shown much interest, or ability, to create such viability. Most Arab governments simply want to keep the the Palestinian government on "life support" in order to deflect their own people from focusing on their own lot in life... God forbid that the Palestinians wind up with a higher standard of living than the average Arab (which already is the case with relation to some muslim countries). Afghanistan? It's a long road for them. First they require an army that is capable of forcing the various regional warlords to submit to central rule. It's going to be one of those situations where economic and social improvement begins in various major population centers throughout the country and then inevitably the countryside itself. But let's face some facts... it's tough to find suitable substitute crops that are as profitable as opium... I prefer a genetic virus be engineer that only impacts the opium poppy. Or possibly an insect that is genetically modified to depend upon poppy sap, much in the manner that the Monarch only eats milkweed. Hawk