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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (20377)	9/13/2003 7:16:12 AM
From: peter snowdon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

i dont think i have any reasons not to hold gold as a hedge, but the question then is: in what form do we hold it? the focus of this thread has typically been on juniors with a tendency to the more 'speculative' end of the range (i.e. plays which are leveraged to news, not just to POG). if we move into an environment where even news may have little positive impact against a general downtrend, but we want to hedge the possibility that the trend will turn out to be up, then we should perhaps be positioned rather differently? very interested to hear from those who are 20% PM or less what they are still holding and why. as i thin these weeks, i have tended to take out bigger producers or near producers, rather than exploration plays or special situations, seeing more potential upside in the latter as long as the correction does not set in. but it maybe that on a 6 month outlook, that is not the best strategy? peter

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (20377)	9/13/2003 7:50:28 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 39344

crusty another great post. What did you say your money management fee is? <g> I guess I look at the story of a stock more than TA. I do see some things in the fundamental picture that make me doubt whether the POG fall will be that great. Continuing trade deficits, growing USA unemployment, level of credit expansion by mortgage lending the past 5 years slowing down, competitive devaluation of currencies, etc. etc. But look at what AQI and SVL and INM are doing. Cheap plays possibly on top of expanding resources, maybe in a big way. CKG may do the same thing if they ever drill. <g> If we don't focus on day trading or even trading them every month or two I think we can do very well on some of cc's picks or your own picks by holding if their stories unfold. Of course the drills will have to hit something. <g> So I am holding a bunch of these through a correction (if we have one) because it is also hard to figure when the correction will end and we should be buying back in. tom

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (20377)	9/13/2003 11:41:30 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 39344

>>If anyone can explain why a significant PM hedge is not necessary, I'm all ears WOW !! And further to your profound observation that bonds trade in inverse correlation to gold and therefore provide a good hedge... i.e holding both, over time you will gain the earnings of both the gold and the bonds with reduced volatility (risk) that the combination provides. To be contentious: Put aside for a moment, all prejudice against Barrick. It seems to me that Barrick has already (forward-) sold a significant portion of its gold reserves and "used the proceeds" to buy bonds. It therefore offers its shareholders the future profitability of both bonds and (unhedged) gold at reduced volatility (risk). Just maybe there are people who would be suited by such an investment (I would be, for one).