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Strategies & Market Trends : Signals & Opinions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yogizuna who wrote (1884)	9/13/2003 11:22:21 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3523

The big picture can change Let's keep one eye on crude oil prices, More than interest rates or any thing else I can think of ; when the cost of energy goes "down" we expand, when it goes up we contract.. ---- It takes time for the results to show up, however energy cost is the "key factor" for longer term growth. --- It's falling now, but is it going to fall more or go back up with the winter. ? -- I think the right wing understands this and they know taht to stay in power they have it get things moving, more than that if they can get crude oil prices down they screw both Russia and the Arabs.. -- Rig count has gone up 29% in a year.. while our oil inventory hit lows not long ago; there is a lot of smoke and mirror stuff when it comes to oil prices, and I'm not sure where it's going..but for now it's headed down. If it gets lower & or stays under 28 the market bulls will have a field day. ---- At this time I see $30 as critical for flat growth above that we suffer, below that we prosper.. ---- Jim

To: Yogizuna who wrote (1884)	9/13/2003 12:44:28 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3523

Follow up on last post I don't track oil/dollar on a micro level, day by day..I just look at the longer term changes.. I keep in mind taht a change in the relative value of the US $ has to be applied to changes in $ cost of crude.. --- July to August Oil screamed higher as the dollar went UP that was shit..oil up about 7% dollar up 2.5% dollar adjusted rise in oil was 9.5 %... taht held almost steady until about labor day... ----- But shit..from the start of Sept.. Dollar down 3% crude down 10%.= adjusted change OIL is down 13%... ---- Adjusted from July we have Dollar adjusted Crude OIL "cheaper" by 3.5%...if that can stay in place or get better it's good for the stock market..( I would not play drillers , but instead BIG integrated ( oil refiners ).. ---- Most of that "seems" to be already priced into stocks.. however when adjusted crude moves down profits can be multiplied more than the percentage of the reduced cost of energy. The cost of energy is permeated into "almost" every thing. Jim