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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38211)9/14/2003 1:57:52 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Haim, <<fundamental point of view after all it helps>> ... not meaning to be contrary, but ...

I went through the trouble of building models and evaluating the business fundamentals of the energy royalty trusts because they generate a stream of distribution flows based on which their valuation partially depends on.

These royalties therefore deserve to be evaluated on the same basis as one would a bond any company. The bonds are easier, since they are studied to death and rated by the ratings agencies. The royalties I must evaluate by self.

I needed to understand their business, and flow of funds, in order to make a guess at the drivers and sustainability of the distributable cash flow.

When I buy reasonable dividend yielding shares (4+%?), I make a judgement on their dividend rate, sustainability of same, and may at times use such short cuts such as PE etc.

When I buy non-dividend generating shares, I am merely making a guess at what a greater fool may pay for the share, because, as far as I am concerned, stocks such as Intel has zero value to me otherwise, since they do not pay out (hardly) anything of value, and probably never will.

NEM is a 'hardly paying out anything' type of share, and its value to me is only what others may be willing to pay for it later on, based on whatever, on almost anything except fundamentals.

To summarize: No distribution = no fundamentals, for me.

NEM is leveraged to the price of gold. What is the price of gold that would make NEM worth more? Anything north of USD 400/oz.

Chugs, Jay



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38211)9/16/2003 5:50:44 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Haim, <<fundamental point of view after all it helps>> ... just as an example of how I work, as I am adding to a position ...

Message 19308027

... and now Aventura is for sale, even as I continue to collect outrageous distributions from Vermilion, its controlling shareholder, as well as benefiting from paper gains on the Vermilion capital value.

newswire.ca
Vermilion Energy Trust; Aventura Energy Inc. - Discussions with Potential Acquirer

CALGARY, Sept. 15 /CNW/ - Aventura Energy Inc. ("Aventura" or the "Corporation") (TSX:AVR) and Vermilion Energy Trust ("Vermilion") (TSX:VET.un), Aventura's parent, announced that they are in discussions with a potential acquirer of Aventura Energy Inc.

The completion of the proposed transaction is dependent upon the parties reaching agreement on all terms as well as satisfying a number of conditions precedent including obtaining government and other approvals in Trinidad.

There is no assurance that should the transaction proceed, the price to be paid for Aventura's shares will reach or exceed the current trading price.

In the event that a definitive agreement is concluded or the discussions are terminated, a further announcement will be made.


Chugs, Jay

P.S. I suspect it is nearly time to sell Aventura and Vermilion.