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To: Dale Baker who wrote (34849)9/14/2003 3:07:21 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
Someone asked me via PM about how to implement a buy and hold strategy - my response is worth repeating here:

"Remember that the last six months has brought a new bubble in overvalued tech stocks. My first rule in buy and hold is "follow the money". I want to see real profits and cash flow if possible, or good revenue increases with profitability very close.

MSSN's accounting is a bit messy due to one-time charges. But they have a steady drilling program bringing in new wells that will bring in lots of cash given current oil and gas prices. I know what I am buying and holding - a cash machine.

The other stocks you mention aren't making money. They went up because they didn't go bankrupt and the market poured money back into techs. I haven't played that niche this year because I am sticking to my value philosophy. I want real profits not just momentum.

SONS had strong revenue growth off the lows though not much profit. The others are just stumbling along in FA terms.

If you are going to hold a stock with poor fundamentals, it's purely a "greater fool" game where you are looking for someone to buy the stock higher than you bought for momentum reasons. It's a very dangerous game in a bear market (i.e. before March 2003).

The value stuff I hold may not shoot up as much or as fast but the odds of getting stuck with a turkey that suddenly falls apart are very, very low.

Most people aren't good at trading - too much guessing involved. I do better and sleep better using my FA judgment and just sticking with what I like."