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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38222)	9/14/2003 11:58:13 AM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 74559

Here is a case for gold from Doug Fabian in an advertisement for subscription to his newsletter. If not mistaken, he has been somewhat perrenial gold bug. VIP Investor Hotline Saturday, September 13, 2003 * Fed panics, pumps trillions of dollars into the economy, ignites inflation * Investors, disgusted by endless Wall Street scandals, buy gold * Worldwide terrorist jitters on 9/11 anniversary give us 15%-20% profit in 5 days * The NASDAQ wipe out Are you one of the NEW gold bugs? I am-and you should be, too. Not because I love gold. But because I love the PROFITS that gold and precious metals can, upon occasion, hand our subscribers. THIS is one of those occasions. It's no secret that there's been a rally going on in gold. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Obscene Profits * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Some of the most OBSCENE profits I've ever made have been in gold. But that was back in 1979...and I never thought I'd live to see those days again! Never say never. The Fed, as I told you back in August, has pumped trillions into the economy in a desperate attempt to ward off the collapse of the bond market and avoid a derivatives-led crash in real estate. As surely as night follows day, inflation must follow from the Fed's actions. Indeed, a fatal collision of this and 3 other events must now drive gold above $400: Yes, there IS an economic recovery. It's weak, but it's real and it is certainly inflationary. Yes, we're entering an election year, and tightening is now IMPOSSIBLE for the Federal Reserve for the next 13 months. Yes, investors have LOST confidence in the system. Was it Enron...or WorldCom...or Tyco...or Martha Stewart...or the billions lifted by light-fingered analysts...or the latest revelations of a backroom poker-game at the mutual funds? Trust vanished at some point-and a whole new generation of gold bugs was born. These factors alone give us a solid shot at 15% - 20% profit dead ahead. It'll come all in a rush, too-probably in fewer than 5 trading days. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 9/11 Jitters * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * You know that gold is THE safe haven in times of uncertainty. And many will say that, after 9/11, very few things are certain any more. But there is always uncertainty, so why is gold making it's big run now? Well, little things accumulated to tip uncertainty into flat out PANIC, and this is what we're seeing right now: In the week of the second anniversary of 9/11, Americans have been reminded of the fragile nature of their daily lives. At the same moment, we've been presented with a SECOND enormous bill-this time for $87 billion-for dealing with Iraq. No one expects this to be the final cost. On top of which, October-the most notorious month in U.S. stock market history-looms. Oil prices, despite promises, have stayed rock-solid and sky high. It's a tax every American pays. Basic materials costs-aluminum, copper, iron and so on-are going through the roof! And the stock market keeps putting in "head fakes"-appearing to break out, but failing dismally to follow through. Together, they have tipped the scale. Now-right now-gold is galloping ahead. Gold is the second chapter in a fat book of opportunities that I created "VIP Investor" in August to capitalize on. The first was the bond debacle. The Fed lost control of rates and our enhanced index fund, Rydex Juno, made a fantastic profit. Chapter 3: The NASDAQ Wipe Out! * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * All stocks are expensive now, but the most overpriced are tech stocks. Many lack ANY earnings, and even the blue-chip techs like Texas Instruments can't promise earnings growth. Intel's 84% advance isn't a sign of health-it's a sign of amnesia.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38222)	9/14/2003 5:18:08 PM
From: chris714	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay.....Do you have any thoughts regarding Baytex (BTE_u.to) now that it has converted to trust status? I am contemplating a purchase here. Chris

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38222)	9/14/2003 5:47:14 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<Another thing about SI, is we can all use the blazing eye of the public to watch us make a fool of ourselves, and the brain of the mob to challenge our ideas.> Jay, quite right. Twice now, I have had my bacon saved by being shown to be off track by Siers. Once you added sufficient stimulus that I unloaded a Tonka Truckload of QUALCOMM to repay all debt and stack some just-in-case cash. Then, I followed you into Global Crossing, since I was buying for a small fraction of what you'd paid [the gloating rights made it worthwhile]. That was the most un-fundamental analysis I had ever done, except for . Then, a watcher told me I was off the rails and I bailed. In time. Though I think over the past 18 months, the situations at Globalstar and Global Crossing for debt securities has improved [can't get quotes just now]. My first stock buy was of Mt Isa Mining back when I was about 17 years old on the recommendation of my soon-to-be brother in law. It went from $3.36 to about $11, going up $1 a day for a while. So I sold it and bought a Yamaha YDS5E 250cc motorbike. I was hooked. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38222)	9/14/2003 7:28:05 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

G375:Q428 Gloat... The one true money ... hahaahahahaha.... Jay, it's an infinitely variable world and everything is money with a life cycle. Mq

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38222)	9/14/2003 7:42:28 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Asia urged to share the pain of dollar's fall By George Parker in Stresa Published: September 14 2003 20:22 \| Last Updated: September 14 2003 20:22 Europe will this week issue a new appeal to Japan and other Asian countries to share the pain of the falling dollar and allow their weak currencies to rise. European finance ministers, meeting in the Italian resort of Stresa on Saturday, agreed to take a strong message to next weekend's G8 ministerial meeting in Dubai that Asian countries must assume more responsibility for the global recovery. The move reflects the growing dismay among European Union policymakers that the euro is being forced to bear the brunt of the dollar's fall, and increasing resentment from manufacturers. However, most of the finance ministers went out of their way to avoid pointing a finger directly at China, whose weak renminbi currency has been identified by US policymakers as adding to its current account deficit. Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Central Bank, said: "The problem is much broader than China alone. Virtually all east Asian countries, which are the growth pole of the world, have pegged their currencies to the dollar. "The burden of adjustment falls primarily on the euro and Europe. We will discuss if we can come to a more even basis for the adjustment which has to take place at any rate. " Giulio Tremonti, the Italian finance minister and chairman of the Stresa talks, is under pressure from manufacturers at home and wants to take a tough message to the G8 ministers, who will gather during the weekend meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. In a draft speech to be delivered at the weekend, Mr Tremonti says: "Exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and be consistent at regional and global levels." Francis Mer, the French finance minister, said: "The problem for us in Europe is that we do not want to be the only ones to bear the burden of dollar adjustments, upwards or downwards. " But Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer, emphasised the need for all parties to do more to foster growth, refusing to comment on the low level of China's fixed-rate renminbi. Many ministers privately believe it is counter-productive to put overt pressure on China. John Snow, US treasury secretary, has been rebuffed after urging Beijing to let the renminbi rise as a way to ease the US trade deficit. "It may be our problem, but it's their currency, " admitted one ECB official. Gerrit Zalm, the Dutch finance minister, acknowledged China's fears of instability if it simply allowed the renminbi to float and suggested instead a peg to a broader basket of currencies. The meeting of European ministers also succeeded in postponing a head-on confrontation with France, over its plans to breach the EU's budget rules for a third successive year in 2004. Mr Mer, who presents his budget on September 24, said he was prepared to accelerate reforms to bring the deficit below the pact's ceiling - 3 per cent of GDP - in 2005.