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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (27586)	9/14/2003 2:30:53 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

From Alan Abelson's Barron's column "Up and Down Wall Street": WE WERE GLANCING THROUGH the latest issue of Fred Hickey's The High-Tech Strategist newsletter to catch up on what Fred thought of techs, and, more specifically, whether he has mellowed any or is still a raging bear. We'll content ourselves with a few quotes and let you be the judge of how he feels about a group he sometimes loves and sometimes loathes. "The frenzy for tech stocks is back with a vengeance," he growls. "Only the most volatile risky stock groups can quench the thirst of the hyperventilating tech buyers, as they've driven the semiconductor stocks and Internet stocks into the stratosphere." He's still a bit, well, negative, don't you think? Actually, as we've said before, Fred's the smartest guy on techs and his present bearish stance is based on the fact that the maniacal move in the stocks doesn't comport with what's happening in the real world of high tech. Like all of us he can be wrong for a spell; but unlike most mortals, Fred is never wrong over the long haul. Although wary in the present superheated speculative climate of shorting techs, he has built up a put position in Juniper Networks, one of Cisco System's rivals. Juniper, he notes, is selling at a mere 450 trailing price/earnings multiple. Its P/E on 2003 estimates is 180, on 2004 projections, 106. Juniper's current market cap, Fred reckons, is $7 billion and that's darn near 11 times the company's sales. "In other words," Fred opines with his usual understated rhetoric, "the stock price is insane.''