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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (64616)	9/15/2003 10:06:28 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I'm a little leery of the China/India "steamroller rolling over the west" myth that is out there. Reminds me too much of how Nafta was going to kill us 10 years ago, and the manufacturing loss to japan before that. Sheesh its always something. I didn't read the Dent book though, I know there have been a few of them. He was predicting DOW 35000 or something wasn't he, and then the baby boom retirement and a bear, then a resurgence? I thought he was a super bull? Anyway, as the last few years indicated, he was a little off in his timetables! What little I read of him made a lot of sense, its just that he didn't seem to have much of an international take on our markets, which are international after all.

To: Paul V. who wrote (64616)	9/16/2003 11:21:28 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77400

Hi Paul, I read Dent's book. He did say that China was the rising economic power and that our economy would go into the doldrums for a decade or two, but that doesn't mean we won't have a labor shortage. In fact, Dent's demographic research bears out the Business Week article's assertion that we will indeed have a labor shortage around 2008-2010. The key according to Dent is to start moving your money out of U.S. equities around 2008 and start rotating to bonds, real estate, gold, equities in China, etc. My own plan is to do something similar. I won't get out of U.S. equities altogether, but if we do experience a big U.S. stock market boom again like Dent predicts, then right around 2008, I'll up my bond holdings dramatically and reduce U.S. equities to around 40% of my portfolio from the 65-70% it's at now.