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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (20523)	9/16/2003 11:03:53 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 39344

<GLOBAL OVERPRODUCTION. I agree with your analysis of commodity price influences except for this. In fact, the long term bull case for commodities lies in tight inventories, and lack of growth in the production profiles of many if not most commodities. There are a bunch of commodities that are so tight, even the slightest supply disruptions will send them ballistic. I feel energy is the best candidate for this. I do think that many commodities and especially in metals have been boosted by hot speculative money (funds and hedgies)playing the reflation playbook. That puts metals at risk to a mini-bust as the liquidity and reflation abates some. I agree that MZM, dollar based liquidity, and other money supply numbers (including China's) should be watched closely for clues of a reflation correction. There's evidence that may be happening.