Clark deals himself in; Dems ponder impact
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By John Aloysius Farrell
Denver Post Washington Bureau Chief
Article Published: Thursday, September 18, 2003
denverpost.com
WASHINGTON - Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark's announcement that he will seek the presidency has Democrats wondering if he's just another joker in a crowded hand of cards or someone who spurs them to reshuffle the deck in hope of a winning ace.
Clark, 58, became the 10th Democrat in the presidential race with his announcement Wednesday at a Boys & Girls Club in Little Rock, Ark. Clark immediately attacked President Bush's record on the economy and the war in Iraq, which he opposed. Bush economic policies "have cost us more jobs than our economy has had the energy to create," he said.
Clark has entered the race late and is not widely known.
But those may be surmountable obstacles for a candidate whose resume has sired a "Draft Clark" movement with thousands of energized supporters, a significant presence on the Internet and more than a $1 million in pledges in just a few months.
"It's genuinely unclear how, or even if, Gen. Clark will affect the race," said Jim Jordan, the campaign manager for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. "He is obviously an interesting, attractive figure, but he has no campaign, no money and, by his own admission, no ... experience with the domestic issues that directly affect Americans' lives."
The only measurable evidence of Clark's support, in the form of public opinion polling, is mixed. While Clark has but modest name recognition among the electorate at large, he appears to fare well when Democrats are asked to choose a favorite among the 10 announced candidates.
A Gallup poll released this week shows Clark very close to the Democratic front-runners, having dramatically increased his support since late August.
Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Missouri, led the pack with the support of 16 percent of the Democrats polled, followed by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at 14 percent; Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., at 13 percent; and Kerry at 12 percent.
But Clark had the support of 10 percent, which means - given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points - that he may be starting his campaign in the front ranks of a field that has no clear favorite.
He appears to have momentum as well. In late August, just 2 percent of Democrats polled picked Clark as their favorite candidate.
Given the poll's margin of error, it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions. But Clark's entry into the race appeared to siphon a bit more support from Kerry and Dean than from the other candidates, the Gallup pollsters said, and little from Gephardt.
Like Kerry, Clark is a decorated military hero with foreign policy credentials. Like Dean, Clark is a political outsider with a formidable Internet presence and a record of opposition to the war in Iraq.
"People should not be underestimating his viability as a candidate," said Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi.
"I know a lot of liberal types who are really wowed by him," said former Colorado Democratic chairman Tim Knaus, a Kerry supporter.
Clark's entry in the race may bruise other candidacies as well. Like Lieberman, Clark has ties to the Clinton-Gore era, having served with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and headed the Southern Command during the Clinton presidency. Like Sens. John Edwards, D-N.C., and Bob Graham, D-Fla., Clark is a Southerner. The last three Democratic presidents have been from the South.
National polls tell part of the story; support in the early primary and caucus states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Maine and others - is as important or more so than in other states. In those early states, Clark's late entry in the race could be a handicap. The other candidates have been wooing Democratic and independent voters in these early battlegrounds for more than a year.
History offers few lessons, but the entry or departure of an unconventional candidate may scramble a race in unforeseen ways. Ross Perot's arrival, departure and re- entry in the 1992 campaign reshuffled the deck and helped Bill Clinton rise from an 8-point deficit behind President George H.W. Bush in the polls that summer.
Jordan, the Kerry campaign manager, predicted that Clark will siphon media attention, Internet devotees and anti-war support from Dean and put the Vermonter's campaign in a stall. "It's bad news for Howard Dean, that the race has been joined by another anti-war candidate and one, by contrast, with real credibility on foreign and military affairs," Jordan said.
But Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, argued that there was more than enough room in the race for both Dean and Clark.
"The only way for the Democrats to win back the White House is to re-engage millions of Americans in the political process, and anything that widens that dialogue, including Gen. Clark's entrance, is beneficial to the cause of beating George W. Bush," Trippi said.
Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic national chairman, shrugged off suggestions that the size of the Democratic field is an indication that none of the current candidates is illustrious enough to beat a popular president.
Said McAuliffe: "We're in the best shape our party has ever been." The nominee will still be chosen by early March, he predicted, with plenty of time for a united and well-funded party to rally behind its choice.
Like Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Clark has a compelling biography that is an asset as he introduces himself to voters. Clark is a former Rhodes scholar who graduated first in his class at West Point, then fought in Vietnam, where he was wounded four times and won a Silver Star for bravery in battle.
He rose steadily in the Army and capped his career as commander of the NATO victory over Serbia in the 1999 war in Kosovo.
"I've met him and have a lot of respect for him," said McCain, though he declined to comment on Clark's prospects.
"You never look better than on the day before you announce," said Tom Rath, a veteran Republican operative and former attorney general in New Hampshire. Rath said Clark may pose a particularly difficult challenge for Edwards and Kerry, who have invested considerable campaign assets in South Carolina and other Southern states that have strong military ties.
"To the extent that Clark makes it harder to capitalize on national security issues, particularly in South Carolina and the South, this throws a monkey wrench in their plans," he said.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Clark's military and diplomatic experience will help him as he and the other Democrats face the hurdle of assuring voters they can lead the country amid concerns about terrorism. "Any Democratic nominee is going to have to pass that threshold" to have a real hope of beating Bush, Greenberg said.
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Denver Post staff writer Mike Soraghan contributed to this report. |
