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Biotech / Medical : MTXX a growth company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (2)	9/26/2003 9:03:53 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13

Hi Mike: "MTXX a growth company" is a very accurate name for this thread. Thanks for starting the thread as the other one has become a roach motel for desperate shorts. The news out yesterday is further evidence that Matrixx is indeed a growth company. I am going to post the entire text of the press release here because links to news often expire. Matrixx Initiatives, Inc. Increases Guidance for 2003 Fiscal Year Positive Outlook Reflects Success of New Business Strategy and Increased Consumer Demand for Zicam Brand Products Thu Sep 25 09:15:00 2003 EST PHOENIX, Sep 25, 2003 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Matrixx Initiatives, Inc. (Nasdaq: MTXX), developer and distributor of the expanded line of Zicam(R) products, today announced that it expects for 2003 a greater than 50% revenue increase from 2002 and $0.25 to $0.30 earnings per share (EPS) on a diluted basis. This updates the Company's previous guidance in which it expected a 30% revenue increase for 2003 over 2002 and a net income increase for the same period at a rate faster than the revenue growth. In 2002, the Company reported revenues of $23.5 million and $0.14 in earnings per share (exclusive of a one-time deferred tax asset accrual). "Our guidance increase reflects the initial success of the aggressive, new strategic business direction outlined to shareholders just 14 months ago," said Carl J. Johnson, president and chief executive officer. "The success is demonstrated by store sales market data which show an increasing number of consumers buying Zicam brand products. Results from the latest 52 week syndicated retail stores market data through September 7, 2003, show Zicam brand products with a 10.2% market share for food/drug/mass merchandisers (the data excludes the nation's largest mass merchandise retailer). This share is 4.7 share points above the comparable year ago period." Mr. Johnson also noted that the current retail stores market data results reflect continued growth in Zicam brand's retail sales volume, which increased 89% in the last 52 weeks ended September 7, 2003, versus the comparable period a year ago. These results include a more than 90% increase in retail sales for the Company's patented flagship product, Zicam Cold Remedy nasal gel in various forms, indicating continued growing consumer demand for the Company's cold remedy formula. "Factory shipments have followed these growing retail sales trends with net sales for the first six months of 2003 up 73% versus a year ago, and net sales for the 12 months ended June 30, 2003 up 89% versus the comparable 12 month period," said Mr. Johnson. "During the balance of 2003, we expect that these trends will provide significant earnings potential, positive cash flow from operations, and the elimination of any debt presently outstanding. We also expect our balance sheet to continue to improve as we move towards the end of the year." While the growing consumer confidence in the Zicam brand of products is of paramount importance, Mr. Johnson emphasized that the positive financial results and guidance increase are the result of the accomplishment of several important business initiatives including: * Introduction of five new Zicam brand products in August 2002, including the very popular Zicam Cold Remedy swabs. * Further expansion of the Zicam product line in August 2003, with the introduction of three additional new products and expansion to oral delivery forms from the original nasal delivery products. * Development of impactful new advertising that effectively communicates to consumers that using Zicam Cold Remedy at the first sign of a common cold can help them significantly reduce the duration and severity of the cold. * Development of new, more impactful packaging graphics to improve retail shelf presence. * Implementation of national couponing support for the Zicam brand, affording excellent merchandising opportunities for retail partners and greater value for consumers. * Increased retail distribution of Zicam brand products, and closer working relationships with retail partners to increase the level of in-store promotion and display support for the Zicam brand. * Retention of the Emerson Group of experienced sales professionals to manage and grow the Company's important and valuable retail partner relationships. Mr. Johnson concluded, "It should be noted that the increased guidance reflects absorption of approximately $1.3 million in additional expense ($0.08 in EPS) in the last three quarters of 2003 due to the Company's decision in August 2003 to forgo its legal claims against its current swab manufacturer. Our decision to settle this matter provides greater assurance of supply of swab products during the critical early months of the upcoming cold season. This decision also facilitated a smoother transition to the new, improved swab product that will be introduced in early 2004, which we expect will eliminate the supply, capacity and cost issues associated with the original supplier."

To: Mike M who wrote (2)	9/26/2003 9:12:20 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13

It was obvious that the company was low-balling their original guidance. I provided rationale for this opinion on Yahoo over the last few months (don't have the links handy) and here on Silicon Investor the other day. Message 19336916 The two questions now are: 1. Is the company still underestimating their sales/earnings so they can over deliver? I think that the answer to that question is yes, and this gives me reason to believe that sales will be up even more than yesterday's new guidance, and that earnings will come in at the upper end of the 25 to 30 cent range, and more likely above it. Based on their new guidance, I'm thinking that 35 to 40 cents per share this year is more likely. 2. What PE will the market place on this stock? We can try to predict the answer to question 2 by assuming that earnings will come in at 30 cents per share this year. I think that is the worst case since I believe that management is low-balling the guidance. Matrixx earned 14 cents per share last year, so earnings would be up at least 114% this year. Now let's assume that Matrixx grows revenues 40% from 2003 to 2004 as well. Based on a 69% gross margin, R&D at 6% of sales, and operating expenses 15% above this years estimate (which I put at 14% above last years estimate), the company would earn about 66 cents per share in 2004. That would be a 120% increase in earnings from 2003 to 2004. What PE will the market place on a company that is expected to grow earnings 114% this year, and will in all likelihood grow earnings more than 100% next year, with further growth in 2005? Is a PE of 50 x this year's estimate reasonable? That would value the stock at $15 today, which is only 23 x next years estimate and 3 x next years sales estimate. Actually, I think that the stock is worth more, but this is a reasonable estimate based on the company's guidance and a little number crunching into the future.