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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11615)	9/16/2003 5:22:05 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95572

Sam posted a really good article Don. The reality of the situation is that we are seeing tempered growth in the industry. Maybe things are going to heat up soon. Certainly there have not been many earnings warnings at all. Mostly a lot of positive preannouncements instead. But how does that effect the SCE Industry at this time? Companies like INTC that have already invested heavily in equipment are still cost cutting by avoiding unnecessary investment in newer equipment. The unprofitable competitors? They have delayed their equipment buys and are falling further behind the curve. Now how can we expect Moore's Law to continue to rule if only a few companies have funding for the equipment available to make the shrinks possible? It will eventually happen but there will be fewer competitors. Right now we have another bubble in the works where I could no longer afford to be short but realistically I have to give credit to the strong technical bull market that has been going forward for seven months. It's going to end some day but it sure did not happen today. As far as analyst's commentary on the industry as a whole? They are far more effective when they single out a company in their commentary and use language that easier to discern than what you were reading there. Anyway, right now the VIX is trending from one Bollinger Band to the other. Go long when it touches the upper band and begins to fall. Short when we get the new lows on the VIX might work too because so far no one has increased their capex budget: investorshub.com RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11615)	9/16/2003 6:09:20 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95572

Hi Don, I like to use TSM as a good gauge for the industry. For example, trailing PE is around 80 but forward PE gets us about 24. As we start the recovery process it's very understandable for the high trailing PE since the expectations are much higher going forward. If the growth estimates continue to work higher, as we go through 2003, then it would not be too much to expect eps estimates to rise some and the forward PE might actually be quite low by this time next year. TSM has been suggesting that moderate growth should be sustainable (at least for the next quarter) and other key industry players have also suggested the same. So much depends on your view of the intermediate future, say 6 to 12 months out. If you think that moderate growth doesn't justify a 24 PE for TSM, then the stock is not a buy. If you think that 2005 will show weakness compared to 2004 or that growth will be very slow, then that's another reason not to like paying for a forward PE of 24. TSM is up about 100% off it's low, which means that it's market cap has grown from approx 25B to 50B, a bit pricey on a price-to-sales ratio or price-to-book for a stock with a trailing PE of 80 but not too pricey if one's expectations for 2004 are more aggressive then current estimates. So, is the TSM cup half full or half empty? Now one can try to use the same factors on any issue, not just TSM but TSM has been one of the better barometers, since they post monthly sales numbers and have been pretty vocal on their short term guidance, at least more vocal then some companies.