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To: Gus who wrote (15288)9/17/2003 11:28:12 AM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 17183
 
Gus,

I notice you did not include in your excellent table the somewhat questionable November 2001 trough release.nber.org, where it appears that the small-cap one-year performance spread was on the low end of the expected range.

At any rate you are correct that the outperformance of small-caps tends to persist through the second year after recession. In fact, the spread tends to continue to widen through T + 36 months.
morganstanley.com p.3 table

Sam



To: Gus who wrote (15288)9/23/2003 1:49:37 PM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 17183
 
OT The latest recession started in March 2001 and ended in November 2001. -- NBER, Cambridge, MA

Do you agree with this statement?



To: Gus who wrote (15288)11/24/2003 1:01:27 PM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 17183
 
OT Hearing increasing pre-Jan effect chatter. What is basis behind theory that investors are more disposed to take profits on small caps in December than large caps?