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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (7179)	9/16/2003 7:22:20 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Not quite sure....I do remember he was very Bullish earlier in the year, but have not seen anything of him lately.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (7179)	9/17/2003 8:58:02 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Did Tom Kurlak turn bearish on the group lately? I try and archive these guys. (I'd sure like some help posting their opinions somewhere on Suite101 so we can do this search and get more results as I miss many.) Search for "Tom Kurlac" for the past yr. suite101.com suite101.com Date: October 31, 2002 Subject: Here a bear, there a bear, everywhere a bear, bear.... From bear #1 Fleckenstein, "...A Priori Acid Test: I did receive a handful of emails during the day about a piece penned by Tom Kurlak on RealMoney. My only comment to the piece is that while many people are trying to make the argument that this is the bottom yet again, valuations for some of the big-cap semiconductors like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) (INTC) and Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) are about three times what they have been at prior troughs. One would think that after the biggest bubble in the history of the world, we might see "sub-trough" valuations. But even if we return only to the low valuations of past cycles, what we're seeing today cannot possibly pass for those kinds of levels. Level-Headed Advice: Meanwhile, it's not my place to give personal advice to people, and I generally don't do this, but given where the economy looks to me to be headed, I would think that sometime in the next week, between now and the FOMC meeting, the stock market will have seen its best levels. So, people who are overexposed to stocks might want to use the next four or five sessions, plus or minus, to lighten up. I simply cannot believe the market does not have unfinished business on the downside. So it appears that Fleckenstein thought 3 weeks after THE BOTTOM (Oct 9, 2002) was the best levels the market would see AND he implied that Tom Kurlac had called a bottom. Going back 2 yrs: suite101.com We find Cramer mentions Kurlak while calling his sector overvalued: Chalk this day's bearish tone up to that now-hallowed group. And hope -- even though I don't like hope in the equation -- that one day we will not all be hostage to the whims of the analysts who follow this overrated, overhyped, overvalued sector.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (7179)	9/17/2003 3:49:10 PM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 25522

A Correction Likely for Semiconductor Stocks thestreet.com By Thomas Kurlak Special to RealMoney.com 08/25/2003 11:30 AM EDT Click here for more stories by Thomas Kurlak Semiconductors A market correction could occur at any time. A cash reserve now will provide buying power for tech at better levels later this year. Now that most Wall Street analysts have recognized the developing semiconductor recovery and turned bullish, a correction seems in order. After Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) share price doubled since last October's low, the company is now confirming what many investors have known all along. The "news" of better business from management last Friday was not celebrated to the degree that a real surprise would've been, indicating that a lot of investors are already up to speed with the fundamentals. I've been an advocate for owning semiconductor shares since last fall and remain committed to my forecast of a major up cycle that will carry the stocks higher over the next year. But I am concerned that "performance money" and short-covering by hedge funds this summer have chased the semiconductor stocks up to levels where more good news may not hold them, if the stock market weakens. The lack of a summer stock-market fade has been largely due to a few cyclical groups moving up, especially technology, while the overall list has weakened. I don't like to see a weak advance/decline line when the majority of market advisers have become bullish. The falling number of advancing stocks is a sobering downslope of apathy toward most stocks not seen since last January. So a market correction could occur at any time now. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, has rallied 100% since October. Intel, also up 100%, stands at a defendable, but not cheap, 27 times the highest Street estimate I've seen for 2004 of $1 a share. Although I still believe Intel's annualized earnings can reach a peak level of at least $1.50 in this cycle, thus getting the stock to $40-$45, that additional 50% upside will, in my opinion, take the rest of this cycle to accomplish. A lot of bumps will occur along the way. And two sources of buying, funds chasing performance and shorts covering, have probably made their contributions. Traditional investors, who usually come in later and hold longer, will have to carry the load from here, and they can take their time about it. Related Stories Latest Rally Leads to the Real Thing Time Favors the Tech Bulls Bullish Case Still Holds for Tech Stocks Meanwhile, the lack of a summer correction has emboldened market forecasters to see clear sailing to higher levels this fall, supported by a consensus view of an economic recovery. In my experience, the market usually couldn't care less about coincident economic activity. While I have no reason to expect a weaker economy next year, the recovery in this year's second half is now coincident and investors are looking beyond it. High-beta stocks like semiconductors need rising expectations to keep moving. Are expectations likely to rise from here, during what may be a period of stock-market weakness? I've taken some profits recently and raised cash. I think opportunity exists in defense stocks, such as Northrop Grumman (NOC:NYSE - commentary - research), which are "near tech" names that often do well when traditional tech corrects. This group has lagged all year despite good fundamentals. But mostly, I think holding a cash reserve now will provide buying power for semiconductor and tech names at better levels later this year.