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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (7184)	9/17/2003 8:09:20 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

VLSI lowers forecast for fab-tool market, but ups projection for ICs By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 09/16/2003, 9:40 PM ET SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- VLSI Research Inc. late Tuesday (Sept. 16, 2003) lowered its forecast for the semiconductor-equipment market for 2003, but it also increased its prediction for ICs. Worldwide equipment revenues are forecast to reach $30.2 billion in 2003, a mere 1.8 percent increase from 2002, according to VLSI Research. Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to hit $135.6 billion in 2003, up 12.5 percent from 2002, according to the Santa Clara-based market research firm. In 2004, VLSI Research projects the semiconductor and fab-tool markets will grow 18 percent and 24.6 percent, respectively. In June, however, VLSI Research raised its forecast in the chip-equipment market, from 5.6 percent, to 6.4 percent, in 2003 over 2002. At that time, the firm maintained its 11 percent growth forecast for ICs (see July 17 story ). Apparently, the chip-equipment market has fallen off the cliff--again. "Preliminary results from the company's quarterly suppliers' market share survey indicate that second quarter equipment revenues fell 12 percent after a lackluster increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter 2003," according to VLSI Research. "To pull in a positive growth for the entire year, third quarter 2003 will have to be stellar," according to the report. "The test and assembly markets are definitely seeing an upturn with both IDMs and subcontractors buying equipment. Orders in these areas are gaining momentum. Unfortunately, the wafer fab area is another story. The front-end is being dragged down by added capacity via upgrades and used equipment," according to VLSI Research. For this reason, the equipment book-to-bill ratio has stalled between 0.95 and 1.00 for much of the first half of 2003. In August, it was at 1.00, down from 1.02 in July. Worldwide bookings were $2.113 billion for August, while billings were at $2.108 billion. In contrasts to equipment, the picture for chips has brighter. "Orders have risen steadily all year. In August, the three-month worldwide bookings average reached $12.2 billion, which is comparable to the April 2002 peak and matches the December 2000 level. Worldwide billings reached $11.3 billion, resulting in a (book-to-bill) ratio of 1.08," according to VLSI Research. Front-end capacity utilization rate has hovered in the 85 percent range since June, according to the firm.

To: Gottfried who wrote (7184)	9/17/2003 1:02:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Apparently, there are several "groups" out there, VLSI being one of them, that want to publish their data prior to the report by SEMI. Whether it is "real" data or just "projections" it doesn't seem to make any difference. What is most interesting is that the predictions for semi-equip order growth for 2003 is beginning to fall off from that predicted earlier - no recovery this year, just wait for 2004 and 2005. <VLSI Research Inc. late Tuesday (Sept. 16, 2003) lowered its forecast for the semiconductor-equipment market for 2003, but it also increased its prediction for ICs. Worldwide equipment revenues are forecast to reach $30.2 billion in 2003, a mere 1.8 percent increase from 2002, according to VLSI Research. Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to hit $135.6 billion in 2003, up 12.5 percent from 2002, according to the Santa Clara-based market research firm. In 2004, VLSI Research projects the semiconductor and fab-tool markets will grow 18 percent and 24.6 percent, respectively.> I can't wait for this time next year to see what they will be saying at that time.:) Don