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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cal Gary who wrote (12908)	9/17/2003 10:47:10 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

CG, Nice work. Bang on. ... On the 13,000 plus scripts I made that comment on a point where I was wrong. It isn't 13,000 plus; but, it isn't what I thought either (which I didn't post). What it is is quite close to that number. Of the $790 the split is 709 Pennsaid and 81 OXO. Of the 709, 656 was sold in Canada. The 4200 and 6300 should total very close to $300-303k US (depending on exchange). Therefore August in Canada should be 353. In my books that translates to 12,225 scripts. Call it 12,200 to 12,300 depending on the exchange. That would be a 94% increase in sales month over month after moving closer to a 50% increase in the first few months. However you slice the numbers its clear volumes are jumping. For instance if you project zero increase over the next entire quarter but maintenance at the August level you still break $1.2 million US with GP over $1 million US. This is impossible. I guarantee it will be more. There should also be some Italian revenue this time. I have always said Canadian sales of Pennsaid will top $20 million a year after the average 2 year curve matures. My estimate models have always curved into 5% of the market at that time. This would have been $25 million last year and as I've also said the market is growing in double digits. Pennsaid is now signalling a considerably higher curve. With one more quarter it should become roughly predictable barring other major shifts affecting the market. My estimate of cash neutrality in the August 2005 quarter may be pessimistic. This should also be the last survival placement. If she takes at least $5 million that should do us until the sleeper awakes. We can pretty much count on getting the statements out by mid December.