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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (3611)	9/17/2003 1:48:34 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4905

Hmmmmmmmm, very interesting as usually (I may add): Date: Wed Sep 17 2003 13:33 trotsky (Earl Grey@commodities) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved I (trosky) continue to believe that the main determinant for commodity prices is the boom in China - as long as it continues, commodities are likely to stay firm. in the West, rising commodity prices have currently a deflationary effect, contrary to conventional wisdom. this is also why the bond market has remained unperturbed by the rise in the CRB - in a deflationary era, rising commodity input prices squeeze margins and leave consumer wallets lighter - and thereby actually intensify deflationary pressures in the wider economy. the fact that this opinion is shared by only about 5-10 people all over the world by my reckoning bolsters the likelihood that it's a correct assessment. : ) I knew that the current boom in Comm. is because of China, butthat this has deflationary effect is a new angle. Cheers Eva