I said that a decision to hold off the election would piss off the voters.
Pro-recall campaign jolted back to life
$2 million pours into GOP coffers
Mark Simon, Chronicle Political Writer
Wednesday, September 17, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle
URL: sfgate.com
The decision by a San Francisco federal court to postpone the Oct. 7 election until March sent a unifying jolt of energy through the state's most avid pro-recall forces as campaigns and candidates tried Tuesday to sort out what the court's decision could mean.
The court's ruling Monday may have revived the candidacy of Republican businessman Bill Simon, who said he might re-enter the replacement race he dropped out of three weeks ago if the election is held in March.
"If it took place in March, I'd look at getting back in," Simon told The Chronicle Tuesday. "But I don't think the election's going to be put off," he said, adding that his focus is on recalling Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and helping Republican candidates Arnold Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock.
Simon's own considerations prompted speculation inside the campaigns that Schwarzenegger might drop out of a March election, something officials with the actor's campaign dismissed as "ridiculous."
Still others speculated that a March primary might increase Davis' political problems or it could put him in a stronger position and prompt him to urge Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to quit the replacement race.
Speculation aside, the court's ruling recharged the batteries of the pro-recall effort, which had been struggling to raise money as statewide public opinion polls showed support for the recall dwindling.
"In politics, you need an enemy, and supporters of the recall just gained a new one," said Jack Pitney Jr., a government professor at Claremont McKenna College and longtime adviser to leading congressional Republicans.
In the 48 hours after the ruling by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco to delay the election, Republican sources say more than $2 million poured into the state party from donors outraged at the ruling.
LOTS OF SMALL DONATIONS
Rescue California, the lead pro-recall committee, sent out an e-mail to 15,000 backers on Monday and had what spokesman Phil Paule called the campaign's "single best day," receiving thousands of dollars in small donations from people furious at the federal court's decision.
"This changes our whole dynamic all of a sudden," said Paule.
The ruling came at a crucial time -- a day after California Republicans had concluded a convention at which they were unable to unify behind either of their leading replacement candidates, McClintock and Schwarzenegger.
The court's decision "takes the McClintock-Schwarzenegger split off the table and binds the Republican Party together," said Paule.
"It has just shocked" voters, said John Feliz, campaign director for McClintock. "They were all ready to vote. It's like a meal was placed before them and it's snatched away and they were hungry. They're ready to fight."
Initially, the anger among pro-recall forces has been focused on the federal court, and that's fine with those working against the recall.
'NEW CHEW TOY'
"It seems like the courts are the new chew toy for the right wing. I guess that's better than us," said Peter Ragone, spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, the committee formed by Davis to fend off the recall.
"There are a lot of Republicans who are red-hot mad that liberal judges are thwarting the will of millions of voters," said Sean Walsh, spokesman for the Schwarzenegger campaign.
Others said it is just a matter of time before the focus shifts from the courts to the Democratic establishment they represent, led by Davis. "For those people who believed the political class was out of control, I think it certainly re-emphasizes that," said Wayne Johnson, who was a strategist for Simon's campaign.
"It's a very liberal, partisan court," said Feliz. "As a consequence, they can be easily tied to the Democrats."
"This court will motivate talk radio and motivate activists, and, yes, it will help the 'yes' side," said K.B. Forbes, communications director for Simon's campaign.
MARCH ELECTION STILL MURKY
But if pro-recall forces were clear about how the court's ruling helps their cause, there was less clarity on the political effects of a March election.
Schwarzenegger critics said he would be more likely to drop out of a March election because of the longer scrutiny he would be forced to undergo in a five-month campaign.
"It's already been too long a campaign for him," said Feliz. "He's been trying to skip the final exams and go to the graduation without taking any tests."
Schwarzenegger brushed aside such criticism, as well as Simon's possible re-entry into the contest.
"I don't even think about any of that. As I said to you, I'm thinking about Oct. 7. That's the election day. And I'm concentrating on that," Schwarzenegger said. "Hypothetically what would happen if? That's a whole other thing. I don't get into that."
Meanwhile, Orange County business executive Peter Ueberroth, who dropped out of the replacement race last week, talked with Schwarzenegger and McClintock Tuesday in meetings he said will lead him toward endorsing a candidate for governor. He said he will meet today with Bustamante.
UEBERROTH WON'T RECONSIDER
And Ueberroth told reporters he has no intention of re-entering the race if the election is moved to March, even if it means improved circumstances for his campaign.
McClintock declined to speculate about how Monday's ruling might affect his chances but blasted the court for a "theft of democracy."
Noting that he lost last November's controller's election by fewer than 17,000 votes out of more than 7 million cast, McClintock said he didn't challenge the result because California's voting systems, including the disputed punch card ballots, are accurate.
"Punch card ballots re-elected Gray Davis less than a year ago -- and they had no objection then," McClintock said.
Veteran consultant Dan Schnur, Ueberroth's chief campaign adviser, said that by next March the political climate could worsen significantly for the governor.
He said the state's budget crisis will have returned and there could be ballot measures seeking to overturn some recent controversial legislation, including the tripling of the car tax and allowing illegal immigrants to apply for driver's licenses.
BOOST FOR RECALL EFFORT?
All of that could "rev up the pro-recall effort in a pretty big way," said Schnur.
The conventional wisdom had been that a March election, twinned with a Democratic presidential primary, will draw more Democrats to the polls and improve the governor's chances of defeating the recall.
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But in an election where conventional wisdom seems to be neither conventional nor wise, California Democratic Party spokesman Bob Mulholland said Davis could be better off with an Oct. 7 election.
"Politically, I think the momentum is on our side, and I'd like to get the election out of the way, but California's got to follow the law," he said. |
