Another good column by Barry Rubin. BTW, did anyone else notice the similarity between the cheering crowds around Arafat this week and the cheering crowds around Saddam in March?
Should Arafat be deported? By Barry Rubin
Everything wrong with Yasser Arafat and his reign was summed up by a 13-year-old demonstrator outside his office. The Israelis, he said, "know that [Arafat] is strong and can push them out of Palestine, so they want to expel him."
First, there is the fact that Arafat's goal is still just that kind of total victory. Second, he and his colleagues have continued to persuade most Palestinians including poisoning the next generation's mind that this should be their objective.
Third, Arafat and his followers still believe, against any logic, that they will push the Jews out of the whole place. While Arafat cannot do so, he will kill a lot more people trying and waste many years that could be put to more productive use.
Yet his skills are by no means gone; the world still takes him seriously. Many, though fewer than before, continue to find it hard to believe, for example, that he might actually have some responsibility for the last three years of terrorism, or that he turned down good peace offers in 2000.
Consider a few ironies of recent events. Paid bureaucrats and carefully organized schoolchildren are brought to demonstrate in favor of saving Arafat. It is remarkable how little Palestinian reaction there was to the news that Israel was allegedly about to deport him. Yet some say, as is the case with every dictator subjected to pressure, that acting against Arafat will make him more popular.
No doubt, if one did nothing, Arafat would quickly fall. When, as the song goes, will they ever learn?
Or there is Arafat's fear-induced call to renew negotiations with Israel. Why was he not so inspired previously, and what about all the past talks he has sabotaged or reneged on? Haven't we accumulated enough experience the US government certainly has to understand that there is no dealing with him?
My personal favorite is Arafat's much-publicized claim to have formed a national security council to unify all Palestinian security agencies. Doesn't anyone remember his saying he had done this five months ago, when he wanted to block the new prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, from any real power?
During those five months nothing was done to unify any security agencies, and no steps were taken to stop terrorism. Why should anyone believe it's happened now?
So should Arafat be deported? To start with, I think much of the world largely misinterpreted the Israeli cabinet decision on this matter. The communiqu was worded in a typical Israeli government way, saying: We reserve the right to take this action in the future, if we want to do so. It did not imply that Israel was about to act, but simply made clear the level of frustration reached and warned Arafat that his extremism and intransigence would have consequences for him.
Moreover, at the moment Prime Minister Ariel Sharon still seems to oppose deporting Arafat, contrary to the army's commanders. And given the opposition of the US and so many other governments, it is not on the verge of happening.
CERTAINLY, Israel has the right to expel Arafat. He was allowed to return on the basis of his supposed acceptance of the peace process, willingness to reach a real treaty ending the conflict, and readiness to stop the terrorism and incitement. Having violated every conceivable aspect of all his agreements, he has no standing to remain.
There is no doubt that threatening to deport Arafat was a correct decision. The question, of course, is whether actually kicking him out would be beneficial.
Basically, there are two good points on either side. On the pro-deportation side there is a reasonable argument for thinking that an Arafat far away will have less control over day-to-day politics in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. He would still be the Palestinian leader and set broad guidelines, but more and more power would devolve into other hands. The battle for succession would heat up and open up some interesting possibilities.
Arafat did to some extent run the first intifada back in the 1980s, but he was far enough away for a local leadership to develop which was more interested in finding a diplomatic solution.
Second, kicking out Arafat would signal his people that he is not so strong as his mythology suggests. Palestinian leaders would have to think about the potential costs for themselves of their own actions.
On the anti-deportation side it could be argued that Arafat's departure would make both Palestinians and the West line up more behind him. There could be tremendous diplomatic costs for Israel. Arafat could also reject responsibility for events in the territories, including the ongoing terrorism and the sufferings of his own people.
In addition, Arafat could then run around the world seeking sympathy, courting Western and Arab leaders and lining up more financial, diplomatic, and military support for his cause.
For the moment it is impossible to decide which alternative would be better. But by saying it is ready in principle to deport Arafat, Israel is telling the world:
We want an end to this conflict. We are ready for withdrawal and a Palestinian state in exchange for real peace. But as long as Arafat and people like him are running the Palestinian movement, no progress is possible. You must choose: Do you want peace or Arafat, a Palestinian state or Arafat?
The choice is between a blessing and a curse. People often don't find the distinction so easy to make.
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