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To: Les H who wrote (8642)	9/18/2003 12:00:37 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29595

Global Asset Allocation: Buy Japan — Second Leg to Come Stephen Roach/Global Asset Allocation Committee Going overweight Japan; we believe another leg to the rally is in the offing. Adding 2% to our neutral position, funded by equal cuts in our U.S. and Europe weights. Our optimism is based on what we believe is a two-stage process of improvement. Stage one of rally driven by cyclical recovery and high operating leverage. With growth emerging in Japan and ROE rising, the fair value of Japanese stocks should be approximately 10% above current prices — near the 1100 level on the Topix, according to our valuation model. Stage two of rally likely driven by post-election acceleration in structural reform — potentially much more significant upside than that implied by recovery. We think investors should overweight Japan ahead of LDP vote. We believe Koizumi has over 85% chance of winning and translating this victory into accelerated reform. We see greatest upside in restructuring sectors and domestic-oriented cyclicals. Restructuring opportunities are likely in real estate, banks, and sectors such as construction. From a cyclical perspective, focus on select chemical and consumer stocks such as specialty retailers. Risks: Recessionary relapse and failure of reform process. If the reform process falters, the Topix may be condemned to trade in a broad 800-1200 range; a global or domestic recessionary relapse could swiftly take Japanese stocks to the lower end of this range. morganstanley.com

To: Les H who wrote (8642)	9/18/2003 8:16:34 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29595

<font size=2> Selected tech groups Semiconductors (123 stocks) _ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase _ market SOX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change _----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------ _Sep 18 462 59 71 93 96 96 5.99 _Sep 17 458 57 76 94 97 76 6.03 _Sep 16 460 64 84 93 98 53 6.14 _Sep 15 443 30 67 87 96 30 6.15 _Sep 12 452 41 81 91 97 49 6.74 _Sep 11 449 41 81 89 97 72 7.08 _Sep 10 442 32 76 89 97 95 7.56 DOWN _Sep 9 467 87 96 95 97 99 8.37 _Sep 8 473 94 99 95 97 98 8.33 _Sep 5 460 87 95 94 97 98 7.92 _Sep 4 455 79 95 94 97 99 7.82 UP _Sep 3 444 79 97 94 97 100 7.76 DOWN _Sep 2 456 87 97 91 97 99 8.04 _Aug 29 456 88 96 89 97 98 7.81 _Aug 28 454 91 96 91 97 97 7.42 _Aug 27 450 85 93 90 97 97 6.92 _Aug 26 437 80 89 86 96 99 6.34 _Aug 25 437 89 92 87 95 99 6.04 Networking (91 stocks) _ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase _ market NWX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change _----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------ _Sep 18 231 70 86 92 98 99 8.36 UP _Sep 17 228 58 81 87 96 99 8.31 DOWN _Sep 16 228 60 86 88 97 95 8.35 UP _Sep 15 221 41 77 85 97 91 8.28 _Sep 12 225 57 82 86 97 91 8.71 _Sep 11 223 59 81 84 97 95 8.82 _Sep 10 217 53 81 82 97 99 9.02 DOWN _Sep 9 229 85 90 91 98 100 9.61 _Sep 8 234 91 93 91 98 100 9.29 _Sep 5 226 86 92 91 98 100 8.33 _Sep 4 227 91 96 95 98 100 7.65 _Sep 3 222 90 95 93 98 100 6.62 _Sep 2 213 86 93 88 95 100 5.53 _Aug 29 208 80 95 89 96 97 4.85 _Aug 28 207 76 93 87 97 95 4.37 _Aug 27 204 73 89 78 94 93 3.78 _Aug 26 200 66 84 75 92 94 3.27 _Aug 25 196 65 76 70 92 97 2.89 Biotechnology (105 stocks) _ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase _ market BTK 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change _----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------ _Sep 18 494 75 81 90 95 99 4.01 _Sep 17 487 72 84 88 95 94 3.77 _Sep 16 483 74 84 89 95 90 3.66 _Sep 15 481 68 88 90 94 88 3.63 _Sep 12 483 70 88 90 93 92 3.61 _Sep 11 481 72 91 89 92 97 3.48 UP _Sep 10 475 69 92 85 92 100 3.33 DOWN _Sep 9 491 90 93 88 93 100 3.34 _Sep 8 490 93 94 90 92 100 2.72 _Sep 5 471 87 92 79 90 100 1.93 _Sep 4 471 89 93 80 89 100 1.57 _Sep 3 462 78 90 71 86 99 1.11 _Sep 2 465 89 91 73 87 97 0.82 _Aug 29 454 78 84 69 85 81 0.34 _Aug 28 452 80 82 64 84 56 0.11 _Aug 27 446 70 75 57 82 36 -0.09 UP _Aug 26 443 68 64 50 81 50 -0.13 DOWN _Aug 25 446 61 59 49 84 74 -0.06 Software (119 stocks) _ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase _ market GSO 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change _----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------ _Sep 18 146 70 81 89 93 86 4.67 UP _Sep 17 143 61 80 89 92 75 4.49 DOWN _Sep 16 143 61 82 88 94 71 4.52 UP _Sep 15 139 40 71 86 93 69 4.49 _Sep 12 140 48 78 90 93 73 4.86 _Sep 11 141 55 86 88 93 78 5.17 _Sep 10 139 45 76 82 93 89 5.39 _Sep 9 144 71 91 90 94 97 5.93 DOWN _Sep 8 146 86 93 90 93 100 5.94 _Sep 5 143 82 92 88 91 100 5.63 _Sep 4 146 93 93 89 92 100 5.47 _Sep 3 146 89 92 88 92 98 4.91 _Sep 2 142 88 93 88 92 96 4.10 _Aug 29 138 80 89 78 90 72 3.49 _Aug 28 137 79 88 77 89 57 3.12 _Aug 27 135 68 80 71 87 47 2.75 _Aug 26 134 68 78 71 85 61 2.54 _Aug 25 133 68 76 67 86 75 2.37 Internet (115 stocks) _ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase _ market INX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change _----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------ _Sep 18 164 81 87 90 94 99 5.84 _Sep 17 160 77 83 85 94 92 5.46 _Sep 16 159 71 83 83 94 79 5.30 UP _Sep 15 155 50 79 81 91 66 5.14 _Sep 12 157 51 77 78 92 60 5.36 _Sep 11 156 55 82 77 92 73 5.36 _Sep 10 154 48 77 77 91 86 5.46 DOWN _Sep 9 159 77 90 84 95 99 5.74 _Sep 8 159 88 93 83 95 100 5.47 _Sep 5 156 84 91 81 93 100 5.02 _Sep 4 158 87 92 82 93 100 4.68 _Sep 3 153 87 90 80 91 100 4.03 _Sep 2 153 83 89 75 90 99 3.66 _Aug 29 150 70 80 70 89 98 3.16 _Aug 28 149 70 77 70 88 90 2.83 _Aug 27 147 69 76 65 89 89 2.54 _Aug 26 146 69 75 64 88 85 2.29 _Aug 25 147 63 71 63 87 93 2.11 link to full August data Message 19258529 </font>