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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Long who wrote (8442)	9/18/2003 4:31:25 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793761

THE POLLSTERS Dr. David Hill - "The Hill" Bush ’91 sins not visited on this Bush Twelve years ago, in the fall of 1991, we saw the beginning of the end of the presidency of George Herbert Walker Bush. Even Republicans were beginning to snipe. Robert R. Neall, a longtime Republican local and legislative officeholder from Maryland, was quoted in The Baltimore Sun saying that unless the recession at the time ended soon, “even Mickey Mouse could beat George Bush.” Polls showed Bush’s overall job approval dipping below 50 percent for the first time. Turmoil, chaos and uncertainty roiled the economy. Democrats remember some of that and fantasize that history is repeating itself, but a careful analysis and comparison of the economic and political contexts of 1991 and 2003 reveals that they are worlds apart. Seven factors are critical. First, the current Bush team is more united and purposeful in its economic strategies than was the 1991 Bush team. Disagreements between former budget director Richard Darman and other members of the Bush Cabinet left voters with a muddled sense of direction. The debate over tax cuts was visible and ugly. Today’s Bush team is seemingly all on the same page, especially on tax cuts as an economic stimulus. Second, perhaps as a direct result of his team’s unity, the current President Bush is more positive and upbeat publicly than was his father. In 1991, George H.W. Bush was forced to ominously acknowledge that “all is not well.” Even such business-booster groups as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce were making gloomy pronouncements while critics began drawing parallels between the 41st president and Herbert Hoover. Some observers at the time acknowledged that the mood was much sourer than economic indicators justified. No parallel intense pessimism or cynicism seriously exists today. Third, the former president had to deal with demands in 1991 for a “peace dividend” after he won his war, making the federal budget-making process more complex and divisive. No one is talking “peace dividend” while the war with terrorists goes on today. Fourth, Japanese trade power was still a major issue in 1991, stoking the flames of economic resentment and giving Democrats an opening to bash Bush as soft on emotional trade issues. Japanese economic power is sapped, no longer an issue, and the incumbent president’s steel-tariff decision has deflected some trade criticism. Fifth, the 1991 Bush had divided his own party by raising taxes. The 2003 Bush leads a united Republican Party. The Maryland wag who had publicly bashed Bush in 1991 got a taste of that unity. Neall switched parties to run as a Democrat last November and was defeated in his state Senate re-election bid. Sixth, George H.W. Bush’s economic mess was partly caused by the savings-and-loan crisis that affected home lending. Some families were being denied a first fruit of American citizenship: homeownership. Today’s Bush-backing homebuyers enjoy record low mortgage rates. Seventh, the single biggest sore spot for the current Bush, jobs and unemployment, is less of a problem than it was for his father. In 1991, there was a single-minded focus on the loss of blue-collar jobs. That stoked the Democrats’ fires. But today’s job losses span every level and sector of employment, so it’s harder to use the employment issue for partisan advantage. A comparison of polls taken in 1991 and 2003 reinforces the conclusion that the incumbent Bush is bearing up better in a down economy. National polls taken in 1991 found that only 33 percent of Americans approved of then-President Bush’s handling of the economy. Today, the Gallup Poll says that the incumbent Bush receives a 45 percent job approval rating for handling the economy. The economy is admittedly not the greatest strength of this George Bush’s re-election bid, but the difference of 12 percentage points in economic job approval signals that there can be a different outcome in 2004 than in 1992. Foreign affairs and other non-economic domestic issues can become relevant. It will take more than Mickey Mouse or his alter ego Bill Clinton to beat this Bush. Dr. David Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for Re-publican candidates and causes since 1988. thehill.com