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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cactus Jack who wrote (59224)	9/18/2003 12:07:08 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

12:00 ET Philly Fed Index 14.6 vs 17.0 consensus : 11:45 ET Economic Preview - Philly Fed Index : The September Philly Fed Index is scheduled to be released today @ 12:00 ET. Consensus expectations are for the Index to have slipped to 17.0 during the month from the outsized 22.1 level recorded in August. When this Index last was released back on August 21, consensus expectations had been for the index to have risen only slightly in August - to 10.0 - from 8.3 in July. When the Index came in at 22.1, the bond market - understandably - sold off with a vengeance. With expectations today for the Index to decline somewhat from that "freakish" August level, we would warn that a reading today around or above last month's 22.1 probably will stimulate similar frenzied selling of Treasuries. Fifteen minutes prior to the release of today's September Philly Fed report, the ten-year Treasury note is trading near its lows for the day - presently down 16/32nd's in price, to yield 4.24%. 08:39 ET Economic Review - Initial Jobless Claims : Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 29k (vs consensus expectations of just a 12k decline) to 399k during the week ended September 13 - good news for the economy as the Labor Departtment notes the strong seasonal and holiday factors in the week. The week is also the payroll survey week as the 411k four-week average compares poorly to the 396k average of a month ago and suggests another decline in September payroll growth as layoffs continue. Continued claims rose 39K to 3.683M as the level stands just 100k below the 20-year high of late June. The weak labor market is a growing concern as the growth acceleration to date has left little effect on net hiring. Treasuries have pulled back - but just a bit - from their early-morning highs following the unexpected dip below 400k in claims; ten-year note presently up 9/32nd's in price, to yield 4.14% 07:43 ET Semi Equipment book-to-bill disappoints : Goldman Sachs calls the SEMI August book-to-bill of 0.91 disappointing, as it came in 0.07 below firm's estimate and 0.08 below Wall Street views. Overall orders were up 2% month-over-month off a downwardly revised base (7% below Goldman's original est). Firm views the data as further evidence that while fundamentals continue to gradually improve, expectations for fundamental improvement have outpaced reality. Until expectations for fundamental improvement reconnect with reality, firm believes the equipment stocks may see a 10-15% pullback near-term.