To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (460898 ) 9/18/2003 3:03:55 PM From: jlallen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769667 Leading Economic Indicators Up in August By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 2:40 p.m. ET NEW YORK (AP) -- The nation's long-stagnant economy again showed signs of recovery in August, though the job market continued to be a damper, according to a closely watched gauge of future business activity. The Conference Board reported Thursday that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4 percent in August to 113.3, in line with analysts' expectations. The rise in the August reading followed a revised 0.6 percent increase in July. But the improvement in the economic outlook was tempered by stagnation in the board's reading of the current business climate, weighed down by continued weakness in the job market. Analysts said the report points to an economic recovery that continues to strengthen, albeit one where the lack of job creation is a problem. ``Everything is showing us growth except for employment and it's the one area where we're having a little trouble seeing recovery,'' said Gina Martin, an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C. Even with that drag, the Conference Board's reading is a sign of a business environment that should improve in coming months, economists said. ``The economy is improving, although the road will remain bumpy,'' board economist Ken Goldstein said. ``With export growth still months away, the growth burden remains on consumer spending and business investment.'' The leading index measures where the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months. It stood at 100 in 1996, its base year. Four of the 10 components of the leading index rose in August, including improvements in the interest rate spread, vendor performance, real money supply and building permits. The coincident index, which measures current economic conditions, was flat in August, although three of its four indicators increased. The lagging index was also unchanged. Meanwhile, the latest snapshot of the labor markets was slightly better than economists were expecting. The Labor Department report Thursday that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week after rising in the three previous weeks. The government said that for the work week ending Sept. 13, new claims for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 29,000 to 399,000. Last week's level of claims was not only the lowest since the week ending Aug. 23 but also marked the first time since then that claims dipped below the 400,000 mark. Analysts were forecasting claims to fall no lower than 410,000 in the latest week. The more stable four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out week to week fluctuations, however, rose last week to 410,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week, and the highest level since the middle of July. Although other parts of the economy are improving, the labor market is expected to be the last to heal. Some economists believe that by the end of the year, businesses will begin to step up hiring. Others don't think that will happen until next year. Stocks were higher following release of the two reports. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 92 points to 9,637 in midday trading. The Nasdaq was up 19 points to 1,902. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12 points to 1,038. ------ On the Net:tcb-indicators.org