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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (12919)	10/5/2003 1:51:04 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14101

I believe a recent rumour to be true in all material respects. Getting cash at all is not the challenge some might believe - although the terms and methods clearly show there are few beating down the door. I've been picking up shares since the last revenue NR and as posted am looking for the right windows. These will appear because of the background of delays and mistrust which one good quarter following another is not sufficient to overcome. As also posted this window in my opinion will begin to substantially close after December 17 +/- 4 days which is the next quarter announcement. While the topic of detailed financial analysis has never it appears been popular, it's crucial IMO that this stage of the revenue growth be understood with regard to price implications in December. The normal growth rate for these prescriptions drugs is that from zero they come up a curve that normally take numerous months (I suggest a good standard is 2 years). The change in the rate of growth per month is information as is the actual number of sales in a month. It is very highly likely that these scripts will grow in the first months and it is 100% that the growth, while not even, will overall accelerate to a certain peak and will then begin to drop off. Be careful with what this means. It does not mean that the sales volume will drop off. It means that the rate of growth month over month will drop off. Remember that the market size itself is growing as are the demographics. It's quite clear that DMX did $350K US in Pennsaid sales in August. It's also clear that the rate of growth is still accelerating. I have the benefit of direct experience in marketing these types of products in Canada for a major pharma - but you only need probability to get this right. If after growing month over month since launch at no less than 50% per month, Pennsaid suddenly sold 0% more in any of the months of this quarter - it would still break $1.2M US in revenues. This is impossible. It will not happen. I know from experience that rate growths like that with acceleration in the last of the 4 months on record, that the sales growth curve is currently strong and that its 99.99% certain that actual sales will continue to increase month over month during the quarter. This is of core importance. It is the foundation of the future. Because while the current markets alone with good success are unlikely to produce EPS that are exciting, it is already clear that they will fund the company on a budget going forward and that it is looking like results will fund a materially expanded budget. Regardless of FDA the company can go ahead with respectable resources in developing approvals for other drugs on an ongoing basis. Regarding FDA if a clear rejection were in the cards it would already have been delivered. An accurate statement might be that the FDA is still reviewing something here or that it has not made up its mind. It is highly probable that despite all other considerations such as opinions about the CEO or ability to gain approvals or the ability to manage cash or any other thing - that mid December reporting and its 7 months of Pennsaid history will make clear that DMX is rapidly moving to a profit and more rapidly moving to cash positive and that this latest (still in the future) acquision of cash may be the last for survival purposes (depending on the size). These statements won't matter and won't make a wit of difference. Dimethaid is still in negative mode as perhaps is fair. It's legitimate to ask about solvency following the cash. The OXO milestone (Nov 1) is before reporting. I'm acquiring; but, there certainly is no rush. Mid December will tell the tale unless the sleeper awakes before then. In the meantime are these prices the lady or the tiger in comparison to December? In my opinion that answer is already very clear. Wolf