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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11683)	9/18/2003 3:55:56 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

Just an afternoon update from Briefing.com on today's market action. <14:00 ET Dow +99, Nasdaq +20, S&P +12.31: [BRIEFING.COM] Trading screens remain awash in green as the market's seemingly unstoppable upward momentum continues to draw more buyers in... Although Briefing.com remains solidly bullish for long-term investors, we continue to recommend investors with a short-term time horizon exercise caution at current levels... Technology has fueled the recent uptick, and although leading companies such as Intel (INTC 28.95 +0.07) and Dell (DELL 38.84 +0.26) have shown noteworthy growth, the rest of the pack has not exhibited a meaningful turn in business... With the September quarter warnings season in high gear, we would look for technology - in particular - to be vulnerable to sharp price corrections... NYSE Adv/Dec 2008/1128.> Don

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11683)	9/19/2003 10:28:25 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

Hi Don, We had two supportive events for the market this week. On Tuesday the Fed reiterated its low interest rates pledge. And on Thursday new claims were under 400,000. As you noted, the market's response was a measly 3% rise. But really, even though it seems small, a few more weeks like this, and NASDAQ 2050 will join us for Thanksgiving dinner. Though, the shorts will not be very thankful. September - the cruelest month - is 2/3 finished, and there are no negative warnings. Revenue comparisons will be positive Q/Q and Y/Y. Nearly all companies have trimmed down so they are profitable at lower revenue levels. So even if the recovery is very very slow, they will survive and thrive, and add to their cash, etc.... So the slow recovery will not be a drag on tech. From what we've seen since our last conversation, the trend is definitely up. As others are pointing out, current P/E will not give you accurate guidance. And in my view, the governing model right now is that as long as companies report higher revenue, their stocks will rise, regardless of P/E. Still 100% invested. I think 10% further gain in chip stocks (Intel, Altera, Xilinx) is a sure thing. Sarmad

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11683)	9/20/2003 8:52:37 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

Don, I remember(or at least think i do) from the last cycle that chips lead and semis along with software and job creation for that matter rise on the second leg. I remember amat moving up to the 80s(now 40s) while intc already had peaked back in 2000. At some point perhaps after that assured 10% run in chips, would it become a good time to shift from chips to equips. IF we believe this recovery to be for real, new technology demands new equipment but that follows chip recovery. Again same with jobs and same with software installations(eg oracle). Your thoughts! mike