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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (28113)	9/19/2003 7:10:30 AM
From: T L Comiskey	Respond to of 89467

L...read of this research some time ago....... here's the latest.. Tim Ancient Amazon Settlements Uncovered Thu Sep 18, 7:26 PM ET Add Science - AP to My Yahoo! By PAUL RECER, AP Science Writer WASHINGTON - The Amazon River basin was not all a pristine, untouched wilderness before Columbus came to the Americas, as was once believed. Researchers have uncovered clusters of extensive settlements linked by wide roads with other communities and surrounded by agricultural developments. The researchers, including some descendants of pre-Columbian tribes that lived along the Amazon, have found evidence of densely settled, well-organized communities with roads, moats and bridges in the Upper Xingu part of the vast tropical region. Michael J. Heckenberger, first author of the study appearing this week in the journal Science, said that the ancestors of the Kuikuro people in the Amazon basin had a "complex and sophisticated" civilization with a population of many thousands during the period before 1492. "These people were not the small mobile bands or simple dispersed populations" that some earlier studies had suggested, he said. Instead, the people demonstrated sophisticated levels of engineering, planning, cooperation and architecture in carving out of the tropical rain forest a system of interconnected villages and towns making up a widespread culture based on farming. Heckenberger said the society that lived in the Amazon before Columbus were overlooked by experts because they did not build the massive cities and pyramids and other structures common to the Mayans, Aztecs and other pre-Columbian societies in South America. Instead, they built towns, villages and smaller hamlets all laced together by precisely designed roads, some more than 50 yards across, that went in straight lines from one point to another. "They were not organized in cities," Heckenberger said. "There was a different pattern of small settlements, but they were all tightly integrated. He said the population in one village and town complex was 2,500 to 5,000 people, but that could be just one of many complexes in the Amazon region. "All the roads were positioned according to the same angles and they formed a grid throughout the region," he said. Only a small part of these roads has been uncovered and it is uncertain how far the roads extend, but the area studied by his group is a grid 15 miles by 15 miles, he said. Heckenberger said the people did not build with stone, as did the Mayas, but made tools and other equipment of wood and bone. Such materials quickly deteriorate in the tropical forest, unlike more durable stone structures. Building stones were not readily available along the Amazon, he said. He said the Amazon people moved huge amounts of dirt to build roads and plazas. At one place, there is evidence that they even built a bridge spanning a major river. The people also altered the natural forest, planting and maintaining orchards and agricultural fields and the effects of this stewardship can still be seen today, Heckenberger said. Diseases such as smallpox and measles, brought to the new world by European explorers, are thought to have wiped out most of the population along the Amazon, he said. By the time scientists began studying the indigenous people, the population was sparse and far flung. As a result, some researchers assumed that that was the way it was prior to Columbus. The new studies, Heckenberger said, show that the Amazon basin once was the center of a stable, well-coordinated and sophisticated society. ___

To: lurqer who wrote (28113)	9/19/2003 10:10:47 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

Meant to link this yesterday. A market view from Les financialsense.com lurqer

To: lurqer who wrote (28113)	9/19/2003 10:23:37 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

letter to smart friend from college: I hear what you say, and understand your position your strategy seems to me more like relying 100% on stocks, and 0% on bonds, never to rebalance, to close your eyes, to regard all problems as having politics origins and political solutions, and hope for the best in years to come you appear to do about 2-3 hours of macro-economic study every three months, but to prevent learning as a result of limitations placed on the analysis due to political views which serve as blinders when observing data I never said politics was not important, which is a complete misrepresentation of what I have said what I did say is that in your view, politics is THE ONLY FACTOR in 1999, I did not misread the surge in tech and stock values in 2000, I did misread the correction which has yet to end even today in 2003 in 2002, I did not misread the struggle in the economy in 2002, I made a long list of forecasts, most of which have come true I doubt you bother to even remember them here are a few key ones - 20% decline in USDollar versus Euro with no effect on trade gap - Gold will surge past its $330 troublesome line defended by central banks ---- (Gold is a signal of upcoming price inflation, coming next year) - Fed monetization efforts will backfire, feeding foreign trade surpluses in 2003, I made a number of additional forecasts, which have come true - longterm interest rates would rise, seriously disrupting the bond markets - trouble would come to Fanny Mae, from extraordinary leverage and hedging - terrorism violence would come to Saudi Arabia - US Economic data reporting would lose credibility in mid-2003, I made two key forecasts, and the first is happening right now - the Japanese Yen will rise, despite Bank of Japan efforts, causing import price rises - Fanny Mae will be annihilated you make some good points, but only on my lost wealth which you translate into almost a complete repudiation of my analysis now this is your blind spot and kneejerk extension of poor assessment I have raised my game to new higher levels, and feel great about it it has been noticed by Europe's leading economist and numerous strong financial people in the USA you pay no attention to some horrendous trends which are NOT reversing - share of GDP devoted to debt service from 55% to 76% in last 15 years - share of US Treasury debt held by foreigners from 25% to 46% in last 15 years - US Govt debt and obligations is $42 trillion, not $6.7 trillion - reversal of the USDollar overvaluation will produce a decade of serious pain - total deadly hemorrhage of $450B federal deficit, $500B trade deficit - a real estate bubble fed by a mortgage finance bubble, which is sure to reverse I could go on, but I doubt you even read it closely you certainly have no concept of the large picture, only faith in the future you seem to dismiss the possibility that the great empire can fade, as did England your dependence on political solutions in the face of a banana republic national balance sheet puts at risk my view of your intellectual stature, respectfully you are a smart guy your assessment of the national economic situation is neither given much time, nor given an appropriate level of concern you do not even know what people have forecasts consistent with my own or what their track record is as I said, this has become a waste of time / jim