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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (20731)	9/20/2003 4:32:29 PM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Hi Tom, "So I guess late October you may vision a swoon in both the general markets and gold stocks?" That would make sense. How deep the swoon will be remains to be seen. Here's my current roadmap. At this point, the DOW and NASDAQ have run up so high that even a "crash" on the order of 25% will not make new lows for the bear market. So, there should be a bouncy decline going into next year. Near term, I think the worst case scenario is a 50% correction of the rise from the 52 week low, or about 1530 NASDAQ and 8400 DOW (assuming we've seen the highs). Gold, being in a bull market and not yet reaching its 5th wave peak, may see a worst-case scenario correction of 38% of its rise, that is, to the HUI 170 area. However, a scary "crashette" to 185 seems more likely to me. Going into the New Year, we should see a real barn burner rise in all stocks, with gold being the star and maybe headed as high as the HUI 260 area (170 to 260 - now that would be a sight to see!). The general market will make a lower high, though, as smart money uses the rebound to cash in on LT cap gains off their Oct-Nov 02 purchases, and will finish the job as soon as the new tax year arrives in January. By February the markets will start gaining downside momentum (gold included), and sometime before June expiration, gold and general equities should be quite devastated. The big surprise, strating in December, may be how strong the dollar holds up, as the deflationary crash makes cash fashionable, bonds gain a lesser of evils bid, and Greenspan does his level best to maintain at least one leg of the economy from collapsing. FWIW, crusty