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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (878)	9/19/2003 6:15:44 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

frankly, I'd rather rely on someone else for the shorts -- I figure these guys are better at preserving capital than me. I got too bearish too soon -- lost some good $$s in puts this expiry and that's a fact, jack <g> still in golds, but hedged -- I'm not sure they've topped. Heresy, amongst most, but that's where I am at. Also not ready to buy energy stocks as I think they could correct more than gold if we get a mild winter ... just call me a nut or a nit. At any rate, this slump in oil back from the highs, is like another stimulus to go with the interest rates -- might give the appearance of some pickup if it persists.

To: russwinter who wrote (878)	9/19/2003 6:21:09 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

if we get a mild winter nat gas could revisit the high 3's stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G it would be one heckuvan oppty to buy the stocks then or in the spring. Long term fundamentals are great, of course.

To: russwinter who wrote (878)	9/19/2003 8:29:44 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Household Borrowing Establishes a New Record September 19, 2003 Households have been on a borrowing spree. In the second quarter of this year, households borrowed at an annual rate of a trillion dollars. Household borrowing as a percentage of disposable personal income hit a new high of 12.4% in the second quarter. This measure of household borrowing reflects mortgage borrowing, credit card borrowing, borrowing from banks and the like. An interesting point to note about the current business cycle is that household borrowing (see chart below) is not only at a record high but a new aspect has emerged – household borrowing advanced during the recession unlike in every other post-war recession when households reduced borrowing. The good news is that consumer demand continues to advance with the support from borrowing. The bad news is that defaults, foreclosures, and personal bankruptcies could rise if employment conditions fail to improve. northerntrust.com