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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EACarl who wrote (11712)	9/19/2003 10:18:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95573

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Agilent target raised to $30 at Thomas Weisel and raises their target to $30 from $27. The firm is saying Tektronix's stronger than expected results increases visibility for A's Oct quarter. The firm estimates that over 50% of A's overall biz is driven by wireless and semis, both of which seem to be improving based on TEK's results and channel checks; also, checks indicate that deep discounting in T&M is becoming less prevalent, reflecting a stabilizing pricing environment. Semiconductors . . . UBS raised its rating on ATI Technologies to buy from neutral and lifted its price target to $19.50. "We believe the prospects of Intel licensing ATI graphics IP and of continued product leadership over NVDA in the next 12-24 months will lead to continued valuation expansion," the broker said. ATI Tech upgraded at UBS to Buy from Neutral and raises their target to $19.50 from $15.60. The firm believes the prospect of Intel licensing the company's graphics intellectual property and of continued product leadership over NVDA in the next 12-24 months will lead to continued valuation expansion. Also, visibility into 2005-06 has improved due to the Xbox 2 win and recent consumer wins. Intersil held its annual analyst day yesterday where management highlighted its strategy to become a top-tiered, high-performance analog company. The company’s cost reduction initiatives on overhead from the recently divested WLAN business appear to be on track. Management was extremely optimistic about the company’s growth prospects in its power management and Elantec businesses. In addition, the company plans to increase investment in its standard analog business as a longer-term growth area. The renewed focus on standard analog as a positive as this segment tends to exhibit customer and market diversity typical of an analog business model. In addition, the company provided confirmation of our view that Intel’s next generation processor will initiate a shift from 3-phase to 4-phase power controllers in 2004, which we initially highlighted on July 30. This power management trend is also applicable to graphics processors in addition to microprocessors and is expected to contribute to growth for Intersil in the near-term. Analysts remain bullish on the company’s refocused strategic direction, management’s execution on cost reduction initiatives, and the company’s short- and long-term growth prospects. Power management trends and expanding DVD-R demand continue to be near-term growth catalysts. Jabil reported fiscal year 2003 fourth quarter cash EPS of $0.20, in-line with First Call and our estimate, and at the midpoint of management’s guidance of $0.19-$0.21 per share. Cash EPS was up 5.3% sequentially and up 33.3% year-over-year. Revenue of $1.296 billion, up 6.3% sequentially and 31.1% year-over-year, was $17 million (or 1.3%) above consensus and $21 million (or 1.7%) above estimates of $1.275 billion. Jabil is recovering rapidly from the worst downturn in technology history, well ahead of many EMS competitors, tech OEM customers, and semiconductor suppliers. Jabil’s consumer sector was up again this quarter by 8% sequentially (versus a 7% increase last quarter), in-line with the 8-10% sequential growth expectation from management as Jabil completed the final integration of the Philips consumer electronics business. Consumer is expected to increase 35% sequentially in the November quarter as Jabil enters its initial holiday season ramp-up for its Philips consumer electronics (DVDs, flat-panel TVs, set-top boxes, audio headsets, etc.) and other new consumer product ramps. For the February quarter, Jabil expects consumer to drop seasonally by 20%. The computer/storage end-market segment (15% of sales) held flat during the quarter, but dropped as a percentage of sales. Jabil’s networking (21% of sales) was flat in the quarter after being down 3% last quarter, despite expectations of a 10-12% sequential increase including the NEC ramp. However, the ramping NEC broadcast and video equipment program was instead classified in the instrumentation/medical category rather than the networking segment, which accounted for the difference in expectations. Next quarter, networking is expected to remain flat as a result of general stability across all networking customers. The telecom segment (12% of sales) rose two percent sequentially, but fell as a percentage of sales from 13% last quarter. The telecom performance was better than previous expectations for a 7-8% decline. Without any expectation for a near-term telecom recovery, Jabil expects telecom to remain flat versus August results. Revenues in the peripherals end-market segment (7% of sales) were up 6% in the quarter, versus previous expectations for a flat quarter as a result of overall better than expected demand. Next quarter, the peripherals segment is expected to remain stable. Revenues in the automotive sector (8% of sales) dropped 10% in August, partially the result of seasonal declines. The automotive sector is expected to rise 10-11% in the November quarter, reflecting normal seasonal order patterns. Instrumentation and medical (11% of sales) continues to shine as the segment grew 100% in the August quarter and is expected to grow another 5% in the August quarter. The majority of the strength was a result of the new NEC broadcast and video equipment business as well as ongoing ramp up of new programs from such customers as Enel, Agilent, Emerson, Symbol, and Abbott Labs. RobBlack.com MarketWrap robblack.com

To: EACarl who wrote (11712)	9/20/2003 7:44:43 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

Eric, NANO fits into the same general category as the other stocks like MTSN, CMOS, FSII and EGLS, smaller cap stocks that can really move if they get a little push by the news media. Based on your post, I went back to look at some specifics on EGLS and NANO. Here is a summary of what I found. First, the results over the past few days. Symbol Date Price Date Price Gain # Trading Days EGLS 8/26 1.79 9/4 2.86 60% 6 NANO 9/3 7.67 9/17 15.10 97% 15 What made EGLS move? From what I could find, it was an interview by the TWST with the Chairman of the Board of Electroglas on 8/26. I can't "paste" the full interview, but here is a statement by Mr. Wozniak when asked by TWST why an investor would want to include Electroglas in their current portfolio. <"I think for a longer-term investor, the significant investment we have made in technology over the last five to six years has given us a platform for 300mm that we fill is very, very strong. We now have significant capability in networking applications for both our 300mm and 200mm equipment that we believe is well above our competitors, and we have some new technology that we introduced most recently in July that our customers tell us is the best solution available today for their growing strip package handling needs."> That interview was apparently the "trigger" for the 60 percent gain in the next 6 trading days - you have to be fast to catch these kinds of moves. Now lets look at NANO. There is a lot more news there, so let me just list what I found starting with 9/4. 1. (9/4) A press release touting "their first integrated metrology tool to combine two measurement technologies, the NanoOCD(R)/DUV 9010" 2. (9/5) A press release touting "Enhanced Nanometrics 9300 Advanced Metrology System combines Two Metrology Technologies on One Stand Alone Tool." 3. (9/8) A press release touting "First Optical Critical Dimension Metrology Tool for Masks and Reticles." 4. (9/9) NANO upgraded by Needham to BUY from Hold - Target is $12. 5. (9/11) From Briefing.com - NANO trades up 19 percent on 6 times average volume amid rumor that company may be bought by AMAT. 6. (/11) Nanometrics target raised to $21 from $14 by Oppenheimer. So that is all it took to make the price go up 97 percent in 16 trading days. Congratulations on being along for the ride. Wish I could have been there with you. Don