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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (38488)	9/20/2003 5:40:33 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm, The problem is that Joe6P is not competent. By November 2004 he'll be EXTREMELY worried about his job. JoeSixPack is much more competent than most folks think, whether it's on his own reckoning or through a (union) representative. And Joe is worried about his job now. We don't have to wait for November, 2004. The Republicans will blame the situation on Chinese policy, China becoming in their propaganda yet another distant enemy, albeit an economic enemy, not a military one. If they can convince Joe6P that their own policies are not to blame, they may win that election. Lost your job? Blame China. No more pay raises? Blame China etc etc. Close, but more likely to be something along these lines... The Republicans will initially lay the blame on some nebulous situation, not-easy-to-identify, no particular finger-pointing specifically at China (more along the lines of pointing fingers at southeast Asia, including India, in general). The Democrats will respond by blaming the current Republican administration, who will then counter-attack by blaming the prior Democratic administration for ceding American jobs to foreign shores (including Mexico). A game of tit-for-tat between the two major parties, which will end up as it always does, with Republicans voting a Republican ticket and Democrats voting a Democratic ticket. The real issues will get lost in the mud-slinging from both sides, as always happens. I personally think that a maximally educated work force can make a living in this world, China effect or no China effect. There is such a rich space for innovation. Inventive people will prosper. True, to the extent that "smart" people or "cream" always rises to the top. Unfortunately, the world is populated by a variety of people, not all of whom possess or utilize sufficient gray matter to become doctors, scientists or business leaders. The world will always have a need for worker ants, albeit at lower and lower wages. Way on the horizon, beyond our investing life, there lies the beginnings of selective breeding for intelligence, educateability. Societies will slowly see that in the end brains count. If I recall correctly, didn't some poor fellow in MENSA get himself ostracized from society for advocating exactly that concept? Quite recently as I recall, maybe about 5 years or so ago... <g> Meanwhile gold and oil/gas and some subset of Jay's superb list of selected Chinese stocks traded in HongKong will do fine. I'm not so sure on those Chinese stocks. Somewhere in the back of my mind, I have trouble with the concept of the Chinese government freely allowing all of those investment profits to slip out the back door into the hands of foreigners. I suspect that somewhere along the way, the Chinese authorities will figure out a way to retain more of those profits for their own needs, rather than enriching foreign capitalists. Maybe they'll heavily tax foreign investors (as other nations do) once they no longer have a tremendous need for foreign direct investment. KJC