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To: J. Kerner who wrote (38513)	9/20/2003 5:34:57 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 74559

I am almost sure that all the CB's around the world are NOW prepared to support the USD. A rapid change in exchange rates will spell disaster to world economies which are now struggling to recover. 10 to 15% USX depreciation may happen over a period of a year, but based on the statements from Dubai also other currencies are expected to appreciate against the UDX not only the JPY EUR and other majors. Snow said Japan had in fact been "very supportive" and insisted, "We're not singling anybody out...we have a universal policy."

To: J. Kerner who wrote (38513)	9/20/2003 5:52:51 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 74559

Latvia PM Says 'Yes' Side Wins EU Referendum By REUTERS Filed at 5:31 p.m. ET RIGA (Reuters) - Latvia's Prime Minister declared victory for the ``Yes'' side in Saturday's EU referendum, hailing the decision as one of the one of the three most important decisions in the ex-Soviet state's history. Einars Repse told reporters EU entry ranked among gaining independence during the inter-war period and then regaining it after the fall of Soviet Union in 1991. ``The third (came) today with the decision to join the European Union,'' Repse told reporters. Preliminary results showed 69 support for joining the EU and the ``No'' side trailing at 31 percent, with 604 out of 1,006 polling stations counted. Turnout was 72.5 percent. Malta, Slovenia, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Estonia have already voted in favor of EU entry. Cyprus will also join, but is not holding a referendum.

To: J. Kerner who wrote (38513)	9/20/2003 6:52:25 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Would like to bring some facts why a sharp depreciation of the UDX will bring about economic hardship if not recession around the world. Let's take Germany for example their GDP is around $2 trillion . Germany trade surplus with the US is around 11 billion a month or about $130 billion a year. Their unemployment rate is around 10% or about 4.2 million people. Let's assume that an fast UDX depreciation will bring the trade deficit to ZERO. Germany will need to shrink their GDP $130 billion a year or around 6% as and as a result about 100 thousand people will lose their manufacturing jobs which will have a multiplier effect of 1 to 3 resulting in a rise of unemployed people of around 300,000. Those people will need to receive all the benefits assured by Germany social system on top of unemployment payments abnd loss of tax income which I evaluate at around $30,000 a year. Simple said this will increase the German budget deficit by around 4% to 5% on top of the present 3.8%. Net result Germany will slide in deep recession, and they will be not alone, ....... the whole EZ will follow. Any rebuttals of my theory on firm data are welcomed