Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/20/2003 10:23:17 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, thanks for the elaborate response. First of all if you noticed, I am not singling out China it was just easier to continue about China. The problem is and will remain the same - due to technological advances if in communication, manufacturing or transportation the place a widget is manufactured is not of major importance to it's quality as it was few generation ago. Further an flexible and global financial system removed the disadvantages of local currency financing. SO we ended up in a global village without preparation and with still very different concept of law and order in each neighborhood ....... and it does not work. The problem is as we both agree that devaluation of the Yuan will contribute nothing to solve the problem. Your suggestion of drastically lowering the standard of living in the western world to that of the average citizen in China or India or Indonesia is unrealistic. >>>What must happen is GoldUpDollarDown, possibly followed by global depression triggered by competitive devaluation and mutual protectionism.<<< if faced with this prediction then unfortunate my prediction may come true. W.W.II started exactly for the same reason run away inflation in Germany exported to other European countries and economic hardship. Keep in mind people do not evolve or change as fast as technology and the same instincts and despots will rule as it was in 1930. Being critical and blame the other side is very easy but what is your real solution to avoid yours or my prediction? As to democracy ....... well it is an utopian concept similar to communism as envisioned by is founders. As to the communist regime you refer is like referring to the inquisition of the dark ages as the face of Christianity. IMHO Asia populous countries must do much more to revive the standard of living of their own people much faster than the western countries. The world must get it's footing back. Russia was is in that stage but it is very difficult to compare as they are 1/10 of China population. China must do more than what you wrote much more reflected in fiscal and monetary stimulus or dissaster waits around the corner (few years) ..... and if you think smart financial move will save you my bet is that your accumulated gold will be taken away by lawless gangs roaming the globe ..... your nice home will be burned down and all your valuables confiscated for the good of the so called "nation" ..... as lawless power will rule ........ what would you prefer a lawless maoist or stalinist or fascist regime each with it's own strain of so called "cultural revolution"

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 12:14:16 AM
From: Gary H	Respond to of 74559

Bravo!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 12:39:38 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Chinese themselves, Bingo Jay... Why do people not understand that China has a whole world within its own borders to develop and sell to for some time to come ... And kudos on the rest of the post... great stuff..

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 2:15:08 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Now if this is the outcome of a sharp USD devaluation who will be the swing buyer of China's output ?>> … Chinese themselves Bingo, and because a) Im buying BMW stock - ie offering the guys downtown some more capital for building factories in China, b) returning my leased beamer, eventually c) (probably - my wife has not yet decided, depends on my current overweight) switching to a second hand bike from China probably both me, my wife and my cat plus a few fellow humans in China will be (on average;\) better off.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 6:00:32 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Given the nature and scale of China’s pent-up demand and social needs, the RMB will devalue in any free exchange rate regime.> Given the vast economic development and economic growth of China before people are satiated, China can print umpty megabillions of new money without causing inflation and using that to run the show and do all sorts of public works. They have got a money-printing opportunity to make Uncle Al green with envy. It is certainly a very exciting time to be a mosquito on the arteries of red hot cash flowing around China and gushing in and out too. It would take a LOT of printing to cause China's currency to devalue. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 3:57:58 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Aha, I think we have stumbled on to the truth … J6P does not want to repay his debt!? Well, in this case, and this is in fact the case, the USD will fall deeply, inevitably, and the world will inexorably sink into a debt depression, possibly triggered by the same protectionism that set off the 1929 event.> Jay, it is entirely possible that J6P, being profoundly ignorant, could well vote themselves into the biggest financial catalysm ever if they suddenly figure out that they can simply vote their debts away by repudiating the US$. The great and wondrous virtues of democracy, meaning ignorant mob rule, might result in an economic output per capita comparable with India, which has voted itself poor ever since the Poms pulled out, leaving the Ghandis and Karl Marx to run the show. New Zealand citizens have been voting themselves poor for a long time now, while thinking that they are voting themselves rich by voting to take other people's money. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 7:50:55 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

C'mon Jay, tell us what you REALLY think! Meanwhile, back in reality city, GUDD in a big way tonight. Showtime! CD

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 10:13:53 PM
From: Eva	Respond to of 74559

Jay <The US is printing fast because the US is scrambling on all its commitments it took on of its own free electoral will, franchised by birthright, however ignorant and uneducated, and thus undeserving (call me an elitist;0), and, to be polite, the US is failing at its duties as defined by itself.> Bingo, Bingo and less we forget that the greed for more profit turned the american business man to china and there cheap labor, explorting, extorting, selling out , laying off and now crying foul. Holy cow, you gave a superb answer! Bravo Jay Eva

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/21/2003 11:23:48 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, sometimes reacts like Dr. Strangelove and show who he truly is. Some postings display the true Jay Chen. This was one of them. For those who don’t know: Dr. Strangelove –played by Peter Sellers- was modeled on Edward Teller the father of the Hydrogen bomb. He was a former German –Edward Teller was a former Hungarian- assisting the US dept of defense during cold war years early 60’s. He had a mechanical arm who, that at times got out of hand. When Dr. Strangelove was doing his rant, in front of the top brass, his mechanical arm got a life of its own and raised in a Nazi salute, tried to strangle him, or grab his balls –you don’t see the later happening, but you juts see his facial expression. One of the best films of all times. Balck and white. Worth seing.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38522)	9/3/2004 6:26:43 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

It is not interesting to see the fight of a guy who's got lots of ammo and can call reinforcement and air support. He can shoot and bomb and make all actions to fight off the enemy. He even knows that a chopper can rescue him and take him away from the site. He even know his turn of duty will end and he goes home. That's not interesting at all. Interesting is to see how the guys fight when can count the bullets remaining, no way to get replenishing, none to call... Worse, the enemy knows it. We are reaching this stage now...