Dean leads the pack in money race
His contributions expected to break quarterly record
boston.com
By Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff, 9/21/2003
Before the votes are tallied, the checks are counted. With the nine days until the next quarterly deadline for reporting on the financial status of their campaigns, most presidential candidates will be spending time on the phone begging for money rather than on the stump pleading their case.
For some, the results could be critical. With Howard Dean breaking away in both fund-raising and opinion polls in several early caucus and primary states, the battle for second place is intensifying. To many pundits and opinion leaders, fund-raising is an early barometer of viability, affecting news coverage and perceptions heading into the Democrats' early-state contests, starting in January.
Dean's campaign has already predicted it will shatter President Clinton's 1995 quarterly record for a Democrat of $10.3 million in a non-election year. The question is: by how much? At this point, the Dean campaign isn't projecting, though rival campaigns believe he will bring in well over the Clinton record.
Another new wrinkle is the impact of Wesley K. Clark, whose entry last week expanded the Democratic field to 10 candidates. Initial campaign contributions will be scrutinized to gauge early enthusiasm for the retired Army general, whose supporters have set up an Internet fund-raising operation similar to the one Dean pioneered.
But the results could be most crucial for the gang of candidates who have slipped behind Dean in recent published polls in Iowa, the first caucus state, and New Hampshire, site of the first major primary. Dean has left them in his fund-raising dust to this point.
"The real battle now is about who will become the anti-Dean," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "In the end, there's only going to be one."
Most campaigns declined to divulge to the Globe their quarterly goals.
Short-term stakes may be highest for Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, whose campaign had vowed to rebound from a dismal second-quarter fund-raising performance. Looming for him is a mid-October endorsement decision by the AFL-CIO, and some labor leaders have said his ability to raise money could be a factor.
In the second quarter, Gephardt took in about $3.9 million, fifth in the field and more than $1 million below his campaign's stated target. He started this quarter with $6.3 million in the bank, fourth behind Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts ($10.9 million), Senator John Edwards of North Carolina ($8.1 million), and Dean ($6.4 million).
Gephardt aides would not disclose the goal for Sept. 30, sticking to earlier statements that he would raise a total of $10 million in the six months before Dec. 31. Spokesman Erik Smith would only say the campaign expects to exceed its last quarter total of $3.9 million and improve again in the fourth quarter.
For Kerry, the challenge may be to finish second for the third consecutive quarter, though campaign manager Jim Jordan said: "I don't think win, place, or show matters that much. What matters is making your budget and having the resources to run your campaign."
Best estimates from within the campaign are that Kerry will raise in the $5 million to $6 million range by Sept. 30.
Kerry has slipped into a double-digit deficit behind Dean in three recent polls in New Hampshire, arguably a must-win contest for the Bay Stater.
In the first quarter, he was outraised by Edwards; in the second, by Dean.
His campaign has tapped celebrities like actress Kathleen Turner and musicians Moby and James Taylor for events, and he drew about 1,000 on Thursday night to the deck of the USS Intrepid, a retired aircraft carrier moored in New York, where Kerry spent two days fund-raising.
Dean, who has mined the Internet for unprecedented fund-raising and organizational resources, has been matching Kerry with celebrity endorsements. An event last night in New York was scheduled to feature comic/author Al Franken, comic actress Whoopi Goldberg, and disco singer Gloria Gaynor.
The former Vermont governor also barnstormed through Kerry turf, conducting three fund-raisers in the Boston area last week. A Dean rally in Copley Square on Tuesday will be about a mile from Kerry's Louisburg Square home.
The Dean campaign also says it will establish a Guinness world record for the "largest conference call" on the evening of Sept. 29, linking by telephone fund-raising events at 1,500 locations. The campaign bills it as a "Nationwide House Call" by Dean, a physician.
The Edwards camp predicts a drop in quarterly receipts from the pace of the first six months when it averaged almost $6 million per quarter. His aides were not specific, however, and attributed it to the candidate spending more time on the campaign trail and less on the phone and at fund-raising events.
Staff members for Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut would not specify their own target. Lieberman, however, stepped up his fund-raising activity two weeks ago, holding events in New York, Boston, and Chicago.
"Fund-raising is certainly an important part of the process, but not the most important part," said Lieberman spokesman Jano Cabrera. "Money isn't everything."
Last quarter, Lieberman raised $5.1 million, third in the field, but through the first six months of the year his top-heavy campaign had spent more than half of his $8.1 million intake, a "burn rate" of more than 50 percent, highest by far among the leading fund-raisers. That prompted a series of budget-tightening moves.
Senator Bob Graham of Florida will "beat what we raised last quarter and have enough money to compete in the primaries," spokesman Jamal Simmons said. In the three months ending June 30, Graham raised $2 million and had $1.8 million on hand. The campaign is relying on 800 "BobCats," who have pledged to bring in $1,000 apiece.
Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio is trying to capitalize on his opposition to the Iraq war. Today, his supporters will hold what the campaign said will be 1,000 house parties in 50 states to mark the International Day of Peace, as designated by the United Nations.
"Some may raise $50, while others might raise $50,000 or more," said campaign spokesman Jeff Cohen. The major event will be in Studio City, Calif., where the "inviters" include actors Ed Asner, Ed Begley Jr., and James Cromwell, Cohen said. Kucinich raised $1.5 million in the second quarter, more than half on the Internet, Cohen said. He started this quarter with $1.1 million in the bank.
Perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche had raised $4.8 million as of June 30.
The Rev. Al Sharpton and former senator Carol Moseley Braun have lagged in fund-raising, and spokesmen for both declined to project their second-quarter results. Sharpton, who had collected $184,415 through June 30 and had only $12,061 on hand, was in Louisiana this weekend, raising money, spokesman Frank Watkins said. Moseley Braun took in $217,109 in the first six months and had $22,127 in the bank.
"We're raising as much money as we can," spokesman Kevin Lampe said.
"The third quarter is an absolutely critical quarter," analyst Sabato said. "The candidates are running out of excuses and getting to the point that you either have to produce or get out. . . . If they are raising substantial sums now, they're for real and can go the distance."
Glen Johnson, Raja Mishra, and Patrick Healy of the Globe staff contributed.
© Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company. |
