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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (11727)	9/21/2003 12:58:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

Gottfried, Glad you liked the chart, but thank you also for updating your charts with the SEMI data every month. The more I see of the tabular and chart data every month, the more I "marvel" at what is going on with the semi-equips. The order input is not budging from the approximately 700M+ level, and of course rising order input is the key to an eventual recovery. BtB has it uses, but it does obscure the level of order input and therefore the level of activity in the semi-equip industry. Looking at your chart, home.comcast.net it shows that the order input of 721M in August was less than any month from Jan 95 to Jul 98, a 3 and 1/2 year period. Looking at your chart some more, it shows that in April 01, the order input was in the 700M+ range - by looking at the tabular data, the number is found as 721M. Since that time, which is a period of 29 months, the monthly order input has been in the 700M+ category, or below, for 21 months. Let's do a little simple math and compute what the average level of bookings is for that 29 month period by using the tabular data. Lo and behold, it turns out to be 791M. Only 4 months left in this calendar year. If the numbers don't improve significantly, order input will be less than 10B for the year. As the chart shows, this will be the first time ever if it happens. Going to the tabular data, the actual numbers are: YR (M) 1995 13880 1996 13979 1997 17868 1998 10920 1999 17581 2000 32274 2001 10798 2002 10899 2003 5908 THRU AUG Don