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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (20885)	9/21/2003 3:27:39 PM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

The difference is whether one is assessing the gains on the price of PM stocks or assessing the move in gold. I believe it is correct to assess the move in the price of gold as "one of transition between bear and bull" when the move is about 50% off the $251 low. By comparison the 1971-1974 move was about 500%, the move from 1976-1980 was about 800%

To: russwinter who wrote (20885)	9/21/2003 5:08:36 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<This one however, looks different (more bearish, perhaps terminal) than summer, 2002, and Jan. 2003.> Why? The major reason I can see is a sort of what goes up must come down logic, but as austrieconomist points out the metals themselves have really made relatively subdued moves to date. In my opinion the metals have dominated and will likely continue to do so. The stocks reflect the metal in a highly exaggerated manner. Just IMVHO a rank amateur who has some good fortune over the past few years with a lot of help from the regulars on this thread.

To: russwinter who wrote (20885)	9/21/2003 6:28:52 PM
From: krishnamurti888	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

<<My primary point is that we've ALREADY HAD a great bull market in gold stocks for nearly three years. Sure, it's been stealthy, and has had a couple big corrections, but 500% is 500%, and I would define that as a "big bull market", not an "early transition" from a bear market.>> That is undeniably matter of fact, however, our gold bull market has only seen gains of 50% from the low, which makes it's return seem rather pedestrian in comparison to the HUI. However the gold equities, are really no more than options on the gold price and as such it is not so extraordinary for options to benefit by up to 10X the underlying. I would make the observation that many of the gold stocks were priced, at their low point, like options with very little call time left. This was clearly an 'error' of the market or an 'opportunity' for those who bought at the low. Furthermore I would argue that at $400 gold there are many gold stocks which offer compelling absolute return valuations (GBU is a case in point) and there are many relative value plays still left (for example a WHT looks very interesting compared to a MDG or GLG).

To: russwinter who wrote (20885)	9/21/2003 6:47:25 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

Russ: When it comes to fundamental analysis I accede to your greater knowledge. Unfortunately, the fundamental reasons for most bull market (or for that matter, bear markets) are not widely understood while they are occurring. They often are not understood until years afterward, if then. Because of this I just don't trust fundamental analysis. Charts I trust. All I know is that chart after chart of gold stocks and both the HUI and the XAU, have broken out of very long term bases and to my knowledge that has never happened at the end of a bull market. This is the kind of action that occurs at the beginning of a bull. Remember the dow went from under 1000 to over 11000 from 1982 to 2000, this bull lasted eight years and was an 11 banger, in an index, mind you. Go back and look at the dow chart in 1982 and you will see the same thing, long term base and a breakout, when the dow broke out all the brokers were telling us to sell because the bull was over. But it was just beginning and so is this gold bull. Little joe