High-tech Expo: Precious Chances for Investments
posted: 09/14/2003 05:47 PM
China should make all efforts and give all kinds of incentives to develop its own high-tech innovations at home instead of always hoping to attract foreign capital and foreign technology to develop the high-tech industries. If not, China at best will still be the sweat shop of the world, making only tiny profits from coolie labour charges. Do have some vision, please !
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posted: 09/14/2003 10:51 PM
Dr. Gates: don't you worry that if China independently develop her own hightech, on her own strength the products would have the flavor of soysauce and MSG? Please take a moment and think about it, please! LOL
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posted: 09/17/2003 08:28 PM
For a country which at one time led the world in high-tech innovations, compass, gun-powder, paper, printing, etc., now is the time for tech renaissance again. Don't over-depend on imported technology, have confidence to improve and develop your own. Set up a good system to encourage innovations and target the whole world for a better tommorrow for everyone, not just Chinese.
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posted: 09/17/2003 10:24 PM
But there can never be "overdependence" on imported technology. That word is an oxymoron. Look at Japan. Even whilst the island nation leads in quite a few technologies and industries, they still spend billions each year finding out all about foreign technology. And when they find something good, I guarantee you that the Japanese "import" it for their own use. They put some of the best minds - noted experts and PhDs from each field, assisted by post doc candidates, screening through all information available for any useful morsel.
If anything, China is not doing enough of that. Why reinvent the wheel, especially if reinventing the wheel costs 1,000 as much, and you may never get there? If the technology is available and can be imported at a price cheaper than re-creation (in most cases true), it should be imported. Leave the creative minds to work on something new. That is how China should leapfrog and advance.
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posted: 09/17/2003 10:30 PM
"Overdependent" is when you just import, and refuse to innovate. Now that would be a sad mistake.
The wise Chinese leaders are showing the world that they are farsighted. Hundreds of millions are spent each year on high tech research, and in developing the infrastructure to enable innovation. Now only if the economy can grow faster, those programs should receive even more funding, and more researchers can be supported.
Again, there is nothing wrong with importing technology, to use as a springboard for further advances. Imagine China using a few billion of her precious foreign currency reserves, to buy a controlling stake in NORTEL (it traded as low as less than a buck, I think, just a few months ago), instead of buying treasuries. Think of the number of additional R&D projects and new manufacturing that can drive.
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posted: 09/18/2003 10:09 PM
Under previous regimes in China in the past, it seems everything is kind of superficial. Elaborate ceremonies, banquets, singing of unreal and exaggerated agreements, etc. were often the usual feature of trade and investment promotion effort of localities. The insiders all know those were all part of a show, not much substance. Why not do less such silly and wasteful things but concentrate on real substance ? Everyone knows such shows are fake, it wastes time, money and effort. It only looks good for some local officials who try to use such "achievements" to win promotions. So childish.
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posted: 09/19/2003 07:50 AM
Instead of allowing the banks to continue to fund the real estate bubble, banking policy should be redirected to assist in China's acquisition of strategic platforms to further boost activities in fields where China enjoys a real competitive advantage.
For example, instead of throwing hundreds of billions into high rise buildings, which face the almost certainty of low or no return (vacancy rates in big cities are still in the double digits, with no improvement in sight), China should be investing in major foreign operations that can benefit from China's skilled labor.
Alstom is a prime candidate:
nytimes.com siness/18euro.html
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posted: 09/19/2003 07:55 AM
France said it planned to inject 300 million euros ($335 million) into Alstom, which makes high-speed trains, ships and electricity generators, by taking a stake in the company before the end of this month, as part of a larger government initiative to save the company. France has said that it also plans to lend Alstom 300 million euros this month. That apparently buys about 35% of the biggest high speed train company in the world.
Right now the EU demands that the French govt. get out of the subsidies business, since that is a form of unfair competition.
The benefits for a major China manufacturing outfit to take out the position of the French govt. is tremendous. The combination of French technology and marketing, and low cost but competent Chinese technical labor, would just be unbeatable in the long term.
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posted: 09/19/2003 07:57 AM
If combined with the Shanghai Bejing high speed rail contract, this could mean 100,000 high paying jobs for China in just a few years. China would also gain immediate access to important technology platforms, and would gain a toehold in the international transportation market.
More significantly, other major players in the field, like the Japanese and the Germans, would have no choice but to seek additional JVs in China to stay competitive on the world scene. China would finally gain a real inroad into lucrative engineering exports.
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posted: 09/19/2003 12:21 PM
All that is true. All the more reason that China should set aside at least $50 Billion to buy real technology and industrial platforms from the West, own the IP, and build upon them to really grow China's hi tech manufacturing and R&D base.
The Hainan RE bubble alone cost the banks RMB 50 billion. So China does have the money to play in this league.
There are quite a few industries in which real technology companies are in trouble, and selling for cheap. By judiciously picking industries in which China would have a long term comparative advantage, this program can go far.
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posted: 09/19/2003 12:28 PM
Some example would be:
1. Telecom and networking equipment - both NORTEL and LUCENT were selling for less than a buck just a few months back. China has the biggest growing captive market for such technology. Combine that with a put strategy for CSCO before announcing that all future China purchases would only be purchased from the acquired company, the deal would literally pay for itself.
2. Alstom. Billion dollar market for fast trains, and advanced ships. Company in dire straits. French govt's effort to bail out blocked by the EU. For less tha $1 Billion, a China mfr. can own 1/3 of this international giant, and make use of its engineering and marketing muscle. China's comparative advantage - unlimited supply of hard working, smart engineers.
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posted: 09/19/2003 12:35 PM
With the Alstom play, after the deal is signed, but before paying for it, China can announce that the $500 billion in China high speed train projects (including the national network beyond the Beijing/Shanghai line) would go to this newly acquired JV - the increase in stock market cap for Alstom would already pay for the billion dollars needed for the deal.
There are other candidates suitable for such stock market plays. China should enlist the Li boys of Hong Kong to execute.
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posted: 09/19/2003 07:32 PM
In recent years, the best graduates of the most prestigious academic institutions in science and technology have mostly gone abroad to study and later stayed on. Most of them end up in the US to work for American companies or research institutes. Same thing happened to Taiwan in the 1960's, 70's, 80's and 90's. China needs those talents but cannot keep them at home. so sad.
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posted: 09/19/2003 07:39 PM
"Most of them end up in the US to work for American companies or research institutes. Same thing happened to Taiwan in the 1960's, 70's, 80's and 90's. China needs those talents but cannot keep them at home. so sad."
Don't worry, with the quality of life and the rights to human dignity in place they will all come back for sure.
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posted: 09/19/2003 10:12 PM
But why do they have to come back? Look at it objectively: in the last 3 decades, over half of the FDI and new technology coming into China, came from overseas Chinese.
This summer alone, China has close to a million collevge grads that cannot find the jobs they want.
The primary factor of where people migrate, has very little to do with silly notions of alleged human rights. People move because there are better opportuniites to make money. 1,000 times more Chinese migrated to America each year, a century ago, to build railroads and work the laundries and were treated like 4th class subhumans by the Americans.
Therefore I'd say that if the opportunities are available for the folks to move, the China govt. should continue its existing policy of encouraging them to do so. There'd be more opportunity left for those who stay.
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posted: 09/20/2003 07:14 PM
China should convert to a nation of opportunity creater rather than opportunity follower. You will always be a 4th class citizen no matter where ever you go unless you have a desire to become a 1st class citizen. Making money is good however allowing the money to enslave you is shameful and also painful.
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posted: 09/21/2003 10:40 AM
Did you really write: "The primary factor of where people migrate, has very little to do with silly notions of alleged human rights. People move because there are better opportuniites to make money."
....What's the difference? Unless the opportunities you seek are robbery and such, you'll need some human rights to make and keep your fortune, but be careful not to earn too much... Socialists frown on rich folks.. |
