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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38643)	9/22/2003 11:25:34 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 74559

Senator Robt Hormatz of Goldman Sachs interviewed on CNBC (senator from the state of Wall Street) preliminary before his comments: Japan has decided from G7 comments as intending to wean itself away from US dependence JYen is at a 3-yr high now, at 112 G7 urged member nations to quit meddling with currencies their official statement urged nations to allow currencies to freely float (translation is let the USDollar go to hell versus Asians) Hormatz comments: Bank of Japan plan now will be to smooth out the JYen rise, and no longer openly support the USDollar look for rest of Asian currencies to rise, including Chinese yuan but too large a JYen rise will abort the Japanese economy the Strong USDollar Policy is now officially dead benefits to the USEconomy are three-fold 1. our manufacturers will be aided 2. which will boost our economy when it needs it 3. good timing since not much price inflation now risk is our foreign capital dependence, at $2B per day downside financial market impact exporters will benefit though, provided the Asian economies assist by lowering their interest rates in complement my comments: US exporters will benefit only if they have a positive surplus with Asia the facts are quite the opposite $85 billion deficit with Japan $115 billion deficit with China roughly $60-80 billion deficit with rest of Asia that is $250B trade deficit with Asia so Hormatz spouted nonsense, since the great minority of US firms have no beneficial trade flow with Asia he understates our foreign dependence that $2B/day figure excludes their capital infusion into our mortgage credit market GSE investments are perhaps $300-500 billion per year Hormatz conveniently totally ignored the imported price inflation impact US Economy has an extreme Asian dependence on consumer products of a wide assortment the rise in CPI will be seen this is why the USTBond yields are rising nice try, Hormatz, but you sound now more like a politician / jim

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38643)	9/22/2003 11:29:47 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 74559

we are gonna hear a lot of garbage nonsense propaganda in the next couple weeks about benefits to multinational US firms they got a pass in last 18 months with the euro runup but with Asian currency runups, bigtime trouble many reasons: - we have an absolutely huge trade deficit with them - they hold the majority of the 46% of foreign-held USTBond debts - our consumer addiction dependence is largely with Asian products - Asian banks have a large hunk of USTBonds in bank reserves, which due to fractional banking, puts their entire economy at risk - as our interest rates rise from imported inflation, Asian holdings in USTBonds lose value with US$ and principal (double whammy) that is enough, surely more than that / jim

To: TobagoJack who wrote (38643)	9/22/2003 12:27:57 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Lets agree that we differ on certain issue that is all. To much government is counterproductive to little government or no government is anarchy.