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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (11762)	9/22/2003 11:37:16 AM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95737

<wouldn't you expect AMAT's cash creation ability to grow as its market cap grows?> No. Maybe as its sales grow or market grows. Or if it is no longer in a cyclical industry. Might not even be possible to sustainably operate year after year at much more than $1.6 Billion operating cash flow unless you solve the cyclical nature of its business. (And the $1.6 Billion was the best year ever.) A "lot" has to go right in the economy, in the business of AMAT, in future technologies to ever get back to that level, much less sustain it on average through a complete cycle. Maybe AMAT can do it. I suspect they can in a few years. But even doing so doesn't fully solve the valuation problem of the current price being 25 times the best ever cash flow year. But remember....NONE of this matters right now to the market.