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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MSI who wrote (462909)	9/22/2003 3:16:42 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769667

If Dean doesn't win NH his campaign will fade out fast. Otherwise, he will make it to the convention with as one of the top four contenders with a chunk of delegates. The reason the party powers come into play in this particular election is that no clear frontrunner has emerged, nor is very likely to emerge. Clark's entry checks Dean's "tough liberal" grassroots campaign. Kerry and Gephardt seem to be about at equal strength. Clark with no domestic experience and a late entry isn't liklely to run away with it. Therefore, who wins in the end? The candidate whom most can agree is the best choice to beat Bush. That is when the Super Delegates and also-ran candidates (all with chunks of delegates) can horse-trade and come to a reasonable deal. That compromise candidate is unlikely to be Dean or Clark. At that point it would be between Kerry and Gephardt with Clark the likely Veep. and I'd give the edge to Kerry, though it's too early to tell. Pay attention to party powerhouses endorsements. Feinstein backs Kerry. Biden says Kerry or Clark. The unions Gephardt or Kerry. Gore probably leaning toward Kerry. The Clintons will make sure Clark is on the ticket. Lieberman, Edwards, Graham all moderate liberals likly to choose Kerry. Pelosi the most liberal has criticized Dean. Could be interesting.