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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: calgal who wrote (5011)9/23/2003 1:05:09 AM
From: calgal  Respond to of 10965
 
THE WESTERN FRONT

Tinkerer, Taylor, Soldier, President?
Gen. Clark won't win by promising to fight the last war.

BY BRENDAN MINITER
Tuesday, September 23, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT

On paper, Wesley Clark is the perfect Democrat to challenge George W. Bush. He's a warrior, and he's also the candidate likely to put the best public face on the party by shutting down Howard Dean--whose liberal, antiwar rhetoric risks sending the party down to another McGovern-type defeat. Democrats are happy, then, to see poll numbers showing Gen. Clark running strong against both Dr. Dean and President Bush.

Presidents, however, aren't often elected on their résumés. Gen. Clark has a commendable military career, having graduated first in his class at West Point and led NATO to victory in Kosovo. But ultimately that record will not hand him the presidency. The problem is that he's preaching a military doctrine that became obsolete on Sept. 11, 2001.

Gen. Clark argues in his book, "Winning Modern Wars," and has argued as an analyst on CNN that wars today must be fought much like he fought Kosovo. American (or coalition) aircraft should pound the enemy from above. Ground troops should not move in until the enemy is largely defeated, and then an "internationalized" force should sweep in for relatively minor operations and peacekeeping missions. In the Clark view, the United Nations or some other multinational body should then administer the conquered territory.

The U.S. is clearly capable of winning wars this way. Kosovo was a victory, although not a resounding one. The Taliban would probably have succumbed to an intense aerial bombardment even without American forces on the ground. And a sustained bombing campaign probably could have destroyed Saddam Hussein's regime--although at the cost of a lot more Iraqi lives. In any case, Gen. Clark says he would not have launched a military campaign without the U.N.--meaning the French--on board.

Gen. Clark's preferred style of warfare is the product of a left-leaning political climate still gun-shy after Vietnam. The war on terror requires defeating enemy forces, but it also demands the remaking of civil societies so that they do not coddle the kind of thugs who ram jetliners into skyscrapers. Gen. Clark and the Kosovo campaign don't offer a good template for that. But President Bush and Tony Blair do.

The Bush doctrine--to make no distinction between terrorists and the states that harbor them--has already put two countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, under the control of America and its allies. That has already reoriented the region's politics, so that the Arab world must now choose between the freedom offered by the West or the tyranny of terrorists and dictators.



Gen. Clark's supports can cite two well-known presidents who won the White House with little political experience. But he's not the next Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower. Kosovo wasn't a world-changing event like the Civil War or World War II. The tactics developed during the Civil War dominated war-fighting strategies through World War I. World War II and the Cold War so changed history that more than a decade after Nazi Germany fell, Ike warned the nation about the "military-industrial complex."
Two other "war hero" presidents may make for more apt comparisons: Zachary Taylor and Franklin Pierce. Both won acclaim in the Mexican War and were propelled into the White House by party elders who were looking for a candidate who was above politics. In the contentious period before the Civil War, voters in the North and South alike could read what they wanted into each candidate.

The strategy worked, sort of. Taylor, elected in 1848, had never held elective office prior. As a career soldier he didn't even vote, saying he didn't want to be in the position of voting against a president he then had to serve. His tenure in office was undistinguished; three years ago he ranked 31st out of 39 in the Federalist Society/Wall Street Journal survey on the presidents, just below Jimmy Carter. He probably would have driven the country into civil war if he hadn't become sick and died a year and a half into his term. After his death, political leaders cobbled together the Compromise of 1850 and averted war for another 10 years. Taylor was the last Whig to be elected president.

Pierce had been elected to the New Hampshire House at 24 and served a decade in Congress. But by 1852, when Democratic Party elders asked him to run for president, he'd long since retired to his Granite State farm. The party settled on Pierce after first exhausting every other political alternative in 48 other ballots at the nominating convention. Pierce--the last general to be elected president as a Democrat--did even worse than Taylor in the Federalist/WSJ survey, tying with Warren Harding for the second-worst president ever. Taylor and Pierce both represent a political class that was unable to face up to the pressing national problem of the day, slavery.



Like these two presidents, Gen. Clark was propelled into the race by party elders (Bill and Hillary Clinton) and is trying to be everything to everyone. In an attempt to soften him in the eyes of angry Democrats, he has flip-flopped on Iraq. And his warrior credentials, as well as news that he thinks he remembers voting for both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan before becoming a Democrat, are a clear attempt to soften him in the eyes of the broader electorate.
But unlike in the 1840s and '50s, at least one political party is willing to face up to the pressing national problem of our times, terrorism. What Gen. Clark is left with is an impossible argument: that he somehow found a better way to defeat al Qaeda in the skies over Kosovo, than Mr. Bush has in defeating first the Taliban and then Saddam Hussein.

Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays.



To: calgal who wrote (5011)9/23/2003 1:15:22 AM
From: calgal  Respond to of 10965
 
Lewis of Arabia
A visit with America's greatest Middle East sage.

BY TUNKU VARADARAJAN
Tuesday, September 23, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT

PRINCETON, N.J.--The professor leaned forward, his face, briefly, a picture of fun: "Pay attention to the joke," he said. "The joke is the only form of political comment that is authentic in the Middle East--and for the most part uncensored." He then told a joke now doing the rounds in that part of the world: "Two Iranians lament the state of their country. Finally, one says to the other, 'What we need here is a bin Laden.' 'Are you crazy?' his friend gasps. 'No!' the first Iranian says. 'That way the Americans would come and rescue us.'"

The professor, on a roll, then told another joke: "What is the real slogan in the Middle East?" he asked, then paused. "It's 'Yankee go home . . . and take me with you!'"

There you have it--a pithy lesson, worth hours of CNN, in modern Middle Eastern truths.

Bernard Lewis, professor emeritus of Near Eastern studies at Princeton, is an utterly predictable man. I mean this, naturally, as a compliment.
Mr. Lewis is a person of whom the following can be said with certainty: If you have a meeting with him, he will be on time, with clockwork precision; if you are the tiniest bit late, he will start to get anxious almost at once; if he is in a discussion with someone who is talking nonsense, or peddling cant, he will make his weariness plain to his interlocutor (albeit politely); and if you ask him for his thoughts in his areas of expertise--the Middle East, Turkey, the culture and politics of the Muslim world, the relation between Islam and modernity--he will always be encyclopedic, original and as near to irrefutable as a man can get in a field that is so combustible.

In our age of posturers and instant experts, it's refreshing--and, of course, depressing, for one is made aware of how few there are--to meet a proper public intellectual. By that I mean a man who thinks for a living, but who does not let the living get in the way of the thinking. Mr. Lewis is an old-fashioned, assiduous scholar, now retired from formal academic tenure. He's 87, and could so easily have slumped into comfortable retirement in his spacious Princeton home--purchased, he informs me, when academic salaries and property prices could be plotted on the same graph. But he's busier, in the sense of meeting public demands on his time--"oh, conferences, dinners, interviews, op-eds," plus calls from the White House and calls from Baghdad--than he's ever been in his career, which began in 1938 with an assistant lectureship in Islamic history at London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

Sept. 11 gave rise to a public hunger for comprehension of the Islamic Other, and although numerous men and women now hold forth on the subject, Mr. Lewis was the one to whom everyone turned first, the only one who was ready--two years ago--not merely with answers but with a philosophy. And he spoke not just of the present--of bin Laden, of al Qaeda--but of the Muslim past. He was the first to explain 9/11, and the conflict between the West and the Islamic world, in terms of a historically discernible (and, since the fall of the Moors in Spain, continual) Muslim decline. This wasn't solely explicable in terms of contemporary "humiliations"--such as the perceived injustices in Palestine, the sanctions against Iraq, the income disparities between the Christian world and the Muslim, and so forth. Blame for these differences in civilization lay with the Muslim world, and its failure to modernize. "If they can abandon grievance and victimhood," he wrote in "What Went Wrong? The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East"--a zestful, short book published after 9/11, and required reading for everyone but the most wilfully ignorant--". . . they can once again make the Middle East, in modern times as it was in antiquity and in the Middle Ages, a major center of civilization. For the time being, the choice is their own." Note the words, unsentimental, unyielding, yet redemptive. There's hope. They can fix their state(s) if they want to. The choice is their own. (The book was in galleys on 9/11: it wasn't a response to 9/11, but a work of prescience.)

Of all the scholars of Islam, Mr. Lewis is the one whom Muslims would do best to heed. So I asked him recently if "What Went Wrong?" had been translated into Arabic. Not yet, apparently, though there's a version on the way. But "nine or 10" of his other books have been translated into Arabic, Turkish and Persian. Of one, "The Middle East and the West," published in 1968, he shares a charming story. "It was promptly translated into Hebrew by Israel's Defense Ministry, and into Arabic--by Egypt's Muslim Brothers!" The latter, a fundamentalist group, published it in two versions, a full-length one, and as a shortened pamphlet to be sold outside mosques. The pamphlet's editor, in his introduction, paid Mr. Lewis an austere compliment, one he considers among the finest he has received. He wrote this of the professor: "I don't know who this man is. He is either a candid friend or an honest enemy, but in either case, one who refuses to deal in falsehoods."

In other words, he is frank without being transparent, a man of shades. Speaking of Iraq, he says, "I have different moods on different days. But overall, I'm cautiously optimistic. Some days there's more caution than optimism." U.S. troops had come under fire again on the day we met, and he was impatient to stress that it's time that "we put into effect an Iraqi government in Baghdad." He doesn't, emphatically, mean elections; those "should be the culmination of a political process, not its beginning." Instead, he'd like to see in place an administration of Iraqi "notables," responsible for overseeing the rule of law and freedom of expression. These last concepts, he says, "are not alien notions" in the Middle East. "What is alien is the idea of representation, and the notion of corporate or majority decision." Instead, there is a "tradition of consensus and consultation," one which was, in Iraq, devastated by Saddam's tyrannical rule. (The tradition of consensus, more generally, was destroyed in the Middle East by material changes: "Any tinpot ruler today has more resources at his disposal, and less need to consult his people, than Suleyman the Magnificent, or Haroun-al-Rashid.")

Lest you misunderstand, Mr. Lewis isn't a man who believes that democracy--however alien--cannot work in the Middle East. He believes it can. But he's a crusty realist: "Democracy is a strong medicine, which you have to give to the patient in small, gradually increasing doses. If you give too much too quickly, you kill the patient." But give you must. After all, "we've given the administration in Afghanistan, a place far more backward--and Iraq is not, by the region's standards, backward--an Afghan face. Why not the same for Iraq?" Of course the more complex devices of democracy--such as federalism, with its centrifugal pulls--must wait. "I'm not sure a federal constitution will work in Iraq. It's too sophisticated at this stage. Relaxation of authority has to come gradually. You can't create a functioning democracy overnight."
To his critics, this will confirm that Mr. Lewis is paternalist, a Western--and they say this with distaste--orientalist. But Mr. Lewis offers a refreshing contrast to the doom-mongers who extrapolate feverishly from every shootout in Fallujah, every dustup in which an American soldier is shot, or an Iraqi killed. Mr. Lewis has high hopes for Iraq. Why? Their "cultural and intellectual standards"--set high in the years before Saddam--have "miraculously, if precariously, survived his ravages." Also, the status of women is high in Iraq. As Mr. Lewis puts it--perhaps paraphrasing a desert proverb--"women are half the population and mothers of the other half." In the early formative years, it makes "a great deal of difference to have an educated mother." But his main reason for optimism is that "Iraqis have gone through everything, and are much less likely to be taken in by the fanatical groups in the region."

Although we "keep voicing fears that democracy won't work in Iraq, that's not what they're saying in the Middle East." There's a real terror there among the despots "that democracy in Iraq will work." Here, Mr. Lewis rests his case, as if to ask, Is there anything more to be said?

And here, one might well ask the same question, in echo of his conviction: Is there?

Mr. Varadarajan is editorial features editor of The Wall Street Journal



To: calgal who wrote (5011)9/23/2003 1:15:52 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10965
 
Deficit dimensions . . . and cure
By Donald Lambro

The federal deficit is projected to hit a whopping $455 billion this year and close to $500 billion next year, or nearly one-fourth of the government's entire budget.
In the words of the late Sen. Everett Dirksen of Illinois, a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon we're talkin' real money. Half a trillion dollars is a lot of borrowing by any criteria.
Just about everybody complains about the budget deficit, especially President Bush's critics. But very few want to deal with its chief underlying cause (besides slower economic growth): too much spending.
All the Democratic presidential candidates loudly bemoan the deficits and pine for the return of the budget surpluses of the late '90s. But their only prescription is to repeal all or most of Mr. Bush's $1.7 trillion in tax cuts, which would raise paycheck withhholding rates, substantially reduce incomes — especially for the middle class — and shortcircuit the economic recovery, which would worsen the deficit.
I am not one of those who thinks the deficit should be the focus of our fiscal recovery. We are at war against a dangerous enemy that can inflict horrendous damage on our country. Wars are costly in both lives and money. But as Mr. Bush often says, you can't put a price on freedom.
Moreover, deficits can sometimes have a short-term stimulative effect on the economy. The sharp rise in defense spending this year contributed to some extent to the faster 3.1 percent economic growth rate in the second quarter.
Instead of wringing our hands over the deficit, we should worry about the growth of government and hold nondefense spending to more manageable levels.
When Mr. Bush came into office, we had a $1.8 trillion budget. In the last three years, it has mushroomed to $2.2 trillion. Government spending this year will exceed $21,000 per household for the first time since World War II. It is growing "at an unsustainable rate," says Heritage Foundation budget analyst Brian M. Riedl.
The 2004 Congressional Budget Resolution approved earlier this year ordered all the congressional committees to identify and cut at least 1 percent in waste, fraud and abuse from all mandatory budget programs.
That may not sound like much of a savings and many budget-cutters, including me, think we could cut much deeper.
"However, cutting wasteful spending today saves money not only in the current budget, but in future budgets as well," Mr. Riedl says in a recent 14-page analysis. "If congressional waste cutters had reduced mandatory spending by 1 percent in 1980, taxpayers would have saved $190 billion through 2003 — more than $2,000 per household," he says. That would have cut this year's projected deficit nearly in half.
Where can we cut spending? Here are a few of Mr. Riedl's suggestions:
c Food stamps: Auditors found overpayments were made to the tune of $1 billion in 2001. Illegal trafficking in food vouchers by crooked store owners costs taxpayers $660 million a year. Reforms would save $6 billion over 10 years.
c Flood insurance: The federally subsidized National Flood Insurance Program protects 4.5 million properties from flood costs. But Mr. Riedl found "it pays nearly 40 percent ($200 million per year) of its claims to the same 1 percent to 2 percent of properties that flood repeatedly." Requiring owners of risky properties to pay the full cost of their insurance would save taxpayers $1 billion over the coming decade.
• Earned Income Tax Credit: This income-raising program gives nearly 20 million low-income families $31 billion a year in refundable tax credits. IRS auditors say nearly one-third, or about $10 billion, of these funds are overpayments. Improved verification of real incomes would save $80 billion to $90 billion over 10 years.
c Medicaid: Waste, fraud and abuse has long permeated this federally subsidized program that provides health care for 44 million low-income people. Too often states overreport their costs to get more money from the feds than they need.
Congress' watchdog auditors in the General Accounting Office have "identified state schemes that shift money between state accounts to create an illusion of higher Medicaid expenditures." Then these states turn around and spend these federal tax dollars on non-Medicaid purposes, Mr. Riedl reports. Banning such schemes would save taxpayers $26.5 billion over 10 years.
• There are many more examples where these came from. Higher Amtrak subsidies for declining ridership; $21.8 billion for student loans that are in default and often going to undeserving upper-income families; $3 billion in low-priority, waste-ridden Community Development Block Grants for bike paths and pleasure boat harbors.
So the next time you hear some outraged politicians here decrying the rising deficits, ask them where they would cut spending to balance the budget.
If they don't have an answer to that question, then hold on to your wallet or purse because they probably want more of your money to make big government even bigger.

Donald Lambro, chief political correspondent for The Washington Times, is a nationally syndicated columnist.