CNBC Debate: Do or Die for Clark?
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I know that what I am about to say may strike you as ridiculous. Political junkies will be justified in wondering whether I am engaging in hype, since I am a contract player with NBC and its cable affiliates. But I'll say it anyway: The CNBC-Wall Street Journal debate this week in New York City could be a make-or-break event for Wesley Clark and, therefore, a pivotal moment in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination
CLARK IS ON the launching pad, instantly ahead of the pack and running even or ahead of President Bush in new test match-ups. This week he either takes off or begins falling back to earth like the other mortals.
This already has been a vintage political season--meaning wild and unpredictable--and it's only just begun. A few months ago, Bush looked nearly invincible in his flight suit. Now he looks like a guy whose ankles are weighed down by concrete blocks (jobs and Iraq). The gyrations of politics are everywhere. California is in terminal meltdown; political civil war rages in Texas; and perhaps the most important participants in the 2004 election--the leaders of al-Qaida--are waiting in the wings to do who knows what.
And now we have a Democratic presidential contest that seems to defy all attempts (by journalists and spinners) to give it shape: 10, count them, 10, candidates, all railing against Bush, but struggling to propound a vision of what should come after him; a press corps more suffocating, numerous and wired than ever, yet seemingly blind to the forest in these trees; an electorate bored and jaded, yet somehow (I think) yearning to be inspired.
This is a good time to take a look at the "horse race" as it is about to begin in earnest. Everything to this point has been gamesmanship on the farm and in the paddock. I know this is the biggest cliché in political journalism--comparing a presidential campaign to the Kentucky Derby. But, with such a large field, it seems to be the right analogy. Plus, I began my career in Louisville, and covered the Derby like everyone else in the newsroom.
Here's how I think things line up, at least among the leading horses:
WESLEY CLARK
He's a kitchen match that could set the woods ablaze. Clark has the most valuable possession in presidential campaigning: a BIG Reason to Run. It is: a coherent and detailed alternative to President Bush's preemptive war theory for the eradication of terrorism (the most profound issue of our age). Others have Clark's idea--military might plus shrewd global team building equals security--but he's the only one who's done it on the battlefield, and who has the street credentials and stripes to take on the commander in chief.
But winning presidential elections isn't about resumes or personal track records. It isn't about brains born with or fortunes amassed or medals for bravery won. It's about coming across as level-headed, decent and sane. It's about not seeming like you didn't quite know what you were getting into when you decided to run. It's about seeming well-informed and comfortable in areas outside of your expertise, and at ease on political center stage. Military and business heroes rarely make the transition well: Ross Perot, John Glenn and Al Haig are a few names that come to mind right away.
Clark could defy that recent history. He's already shown enormous potential. Many of my colleagues are snickering at our Newsweek poll, but it shows something important: With Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton on the sidelines (where, I think, they are destined to stay) this race is wide open. More than that, Clark can move quickly into a real lead in the national polls if he does well at events such as the one this week in New York.
Democrats desperately want a winner and they think they may have one in Clark--if he's for real. That means, among other things, that he has to cure himself of a handicap they call in baseball "rabbit ears." A batter with "rabbit ears" is one who hears every jibe and taunt emanating from the opposing team's dugout. You can't get a hit if your mind is elsewhere than on the ball. Clark thinks he somehow can ensure, by the force of his own personality, that every story about him in every medium will fully reflect his views, nuance and all. He thinks he can get every opponent to acknowledge the subtleties of his statements. He has to learn to forget it, focusing on what you can control--what you say, not what they say.
HOWARD DEAN
For the first time in months, I've detected worry and even tinny bravado in the spinning I hear from Burlington, Vt. Dean has had an amazing few months. But as the race begins in earnest, his continued missteps (and his testy defense of them), and the withering crossfire he's absorbed from rivals (notably John Kerry and Dick Gephardt) have left his handlers worried. Now that his expectations have been raised to the sky, especially in New Hampshire, he faces the task of defeating Kerry handily there. Anything less, ironically, will be considered something of a defeat.
And the advent of Clark has really cost the Dean campaign, psychologically if in no other way just yet. For a long time, the former Vermont governor was the New New Thing, on the Net and in the world of politics. He doesn't feel so new right now, and Dean Campaign Manager Joe Trippi told me he was impressed by the digital savvy of the Draft Clark crowd. Before, there was the obvious, consensus answer to Dean, organizationally and emotionally, no one party insiders (especially Clintonistas) could agree on. There may be one now, and Dean has to hope that Clark implodes.
JOHN KERRY
I know John Kerry and know one thing about him: He is a fighter. He performs best when his back is against the wall. That was the case in 1996 in Massachusetts, when his Senate career faced possible extinction at the hands of Republican Gov. Bill Weld. Kerry was indefatigable, and carried the day.
At the Dean campaign, they seem a bit worried about the fact that their expectations have been raised so high in New Hampshire in comparison with Kerry. Now, anything less than a smashing victory will be considered a defeat. Deanites are being nice to Clark on the theory that the general (with his military background) will do more damage to the other man in the campaign with a Silver Star, Kerry. But it might not work that way. Instead, a conversation between Clark and Kerry could make Dean look like a foreign policy amateur--not the thing you want to be in the Fall of 2004.
The key for Kerry will be the amount of cash he raises this quarter. If he stays in the Dean ballpark, he's still a force. The Kennedys are helping, big time.
DICK GEPHARDT
Dick Gephardt possesses three crucial commodities: He's run this race before (in 1988); he has a big idea (diverting all of Bush's tax cuts into a national health-care program); and he has a base (unions). Taken together, these possessions make him the pro in the race. He projects a sense of ease with himself, and with the insanity of the campaign trail life. Along with Joe Lieberman, Gephardt comes off as the calm adult in the pack.
He's never going to lead the pack in money or charisma. But he's in the hunt.
JOE LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman started with more name recognition and support on paper than any of his current rivals. He is highly regarded by all. His team of advisers is as good as they come, including as it does the duo known inside the campaign as "Mork and Mindy"--Clinton veterans Mark Penn and Mandy Grunwald--and deft communications types such as Jonathan Sallett and Kenny Baer.
But Lieberman has struck few sparks on the trail--and most of them have come by way of his denunciations of Howard Dean. He may be right about Dean when he says that the good doctor would lead the party to ruin. But that doesn't mean Democrats necessarily would reward Joe for his candor.
With 10 candidates, this is not a zero-sum game. Knock one guy and you help a third candidate--and not necessarily yourself. The other eight, who had been worried about Dean, better start thinking about how to low-down Wes Clark. The general's commando raid has put him inside the citadel. Can he hold onto it?
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