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To: bcrafty who wrote (82674)	9/24/2003 2:21:50 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

bcrafty, I was just typing a similar question. Why is this time different? Well, the dow line has broken, and that's something. And there's a lot more charts this time that, to my eyes, look like they are in trouble (a lot of bios, GS, a few semis). That said, that has been the case quite often lately... so it certainly should give a bear pause, at least. These breakdowns have been reversed a lot of times... but a bigger correction certainly is "overdue", right? <g/ng> Today's the type of day I'd expect to close at the lows. I thought that Monday, and it didn't, so we'll see. Regardless, the one thing I'm sure of is that today is NOT a bullish day! the freep

To: bcrafty who wrote (82674)	9/24/2003 4:16:44 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

Yep. But, we're higher now, and as long as you waited for a 50% retrace of the June down to get short, you still could have pocketed a nice profit on the "c" down. What's different? Liquidity was much stronger then, in the form of both money supply growth and stock market money flows (mufu flows minus insider sales and IPOs). Seasonality is far more unfavorable now as well. Also, we're now into the topping window on the 48-month presidential election cycle if you assume the secular bear is still in force. Not saying it's done for sure, but it is a higher probability now. BC